Director Acton told the Revenue Estimating Conference on Dec. 11 that recent federal data gaps and slowing national job growth complicate the state’s near-term revenue outlook, but staff estimates show modest revenue increases for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.

"The economic uncertainty we were experiencing in October in both Iowa and the nation has continued into December," Director Acton said in opening remarks. She noted the recent federal government shutdown removed roughly two months of federal data, creating "additional challenges," and added that "the data we do have continues to point to a slowdown in US jobs and a softening in the labor market."

Acton summarized several measurements of the labor market and consumer sentiment, including a cited U.S. unemployment rate that rose from 4.1% in June 2025 to 4.4% in September 2025 and Iowa’s September unemployment rate at 3.7%. She described mixed recent job reports — a 119,000 gain in September after a revised loss in August — and said private-sector payroll services reported net job losses in November. Acton referenced reports from ADP, Moody’s and the Bureau of Labor Statistics and said that, overall, Moody’s projects essentially flat job growth for Iowa in FY2026 with a slight uptick in FY2027.

Acton also reviewed inflation and monetary policy. She noted the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent consumer price growth reading of 3% (annual) and said the Federal Reserve had issued a 25-basis-point cut the prior day, lowering the target range to 3.5–3.75%.

Presiding Officer (unnamed) summarized the conference’s procedural role and the state’s fiscal position, saying the state has roughly $5.9 billion in cash on hand, that FY2025 closed with an ending balance of $1.9 billion and that the taxpayer relief fund holds just over $4.0 billion. He said the conference’s two tasks were to confirm revenue for FY2026 appropriations and to narrow spending thresholds for FY2027.

A member added brief remarks on agriculture, noting recent federal support: "the recently announced $12,000,000,000 in support payments for ag certainly will help, fill in the gap until some of these tariff and trade issues get figured out," he said.

After discussion, the panel adopted the Legislative Services Agency and Department of Management general fund estimates for FY2026 and then for FY2027. The conference also approved transfers of gambling revenues to other funds and the interest earned on reserve funds.

The conference adjourned after completing the agenda.