Jenna Wallace, an analyst with RSP, told the Clear Creek Amana Community School District board on Dec. 11 that the district's enrollment model projects roughly 500 additional students over the next five years. "We have the district continuing to grow these next 5 years by about 500 total students," Wallace said during a presentation of the firm's demographic and development analysis.

RSP said growth will be strongest in higher grades as larger cohorts move through the system, driving a projected 33% increase at the high-school level and tighter utilization at middle and high school than at elementary. The firm singled out North Bend and the high school as the fastest-growing buildings under current boundaries and active development.

Wallace explained the firm's methodology: RSP divides the district into more than 500 small planning areas and factors live-birth market shares, housing-unit yield rates and active and pipeline developments. The firm noted decreased live-birth rates in Johnson and Iowa counties are tempering kindergarten growth even as other variables point toward net district growth.

Board members asked for more granular data. "I was just curious as we think about elementary school utilization, I think it'd be helpful to see kind of where the boundaries we're pulling from and how that impacts elementary utilization," one board member said. Wallace agreed to provide a city-vs.-rural breakdown by boundary and to send an overlay showing past projections versus actual enrollment so the board can assess projection accuracy.

RSP also reviewed housing variables that affect student yield, noting multifamily construction yields far fewer students per unit than single-family or mobile-home inventory. That distinction, the firm said, contributes to a slower growth trajectory in areas with heavier multifamily development.

Administration and RSP said they will continue to update forecasts based on city planning timelines and to return with requested boundary-level detail ahead of the district's planning discussions this winter.