Kate Watkins, the Colorado state demographer, told the Poudre School District Board on Dec. 9 that statewide and county population projections point to long‑term headwinds for school enrollment.

Watkins summarized nationwide and state trends — declining fertility rates compared with prior decades, an aging population and greater weight on net migration to sustain growth — and said Larimer County’s latest projection vintage downgraded long‑term population expectations by roughly 35,900 people through 2050. She said Larimer may face natural decline in the school‑age cohort earlier than the state as a whole and that, in her projections, Larimer’s school‑age population could decline for 15 or more years before stabilization, with net migration the main lever for any recovery.

Watkins highlighted several risk factors: housing affordability (Larimer ranks high on median home‑price measures), potential reductions in net migration tied to national economic trends or immigration policy, and the sensitivity of forecasts to small changes in fertility or migration assumptions. She recommended sub‑county analysis and tracking of housing unit change as tools school districts can use to refine local enrollment estimates.

Board members and staff asked for underlying assumptions and scenario materials; Watkins said the demographer’s office will provide the detailed assumptions and that scenario analyses (low‑migration and low‑fertility cases) are available to illustrate forecast bounds.

Implication for PSD: Superintendent Keith Kingsley and staff cited the demographer’s figures in the context of a roughly 500‑student decline this year and urged the board to factor those trends into district budgeting and long‑range planning.