Dr. Robert Eiler, a professor of economics at Sonoma State University contracted by the City of Santa Rosa, told the Economic Development Subcommittee on Dec. 1 that major forecasters do not expect a national recession and that Santa Rosa’s economy shows modest, mixed signals.

Eiler said the Philadelphia Federal Reserve panel of forecasters projects growth through next year with a flattening later in the decade. “There is no recession in the forecast,” he said, while noting a roughly 15% chance of recession looking toward 2026. He cautioned that headwinds remain and recommended monitoring macroeconomic pressures that could affect local small businesses.

The presentation examined local indicators: Santa Rosa’s total taxable sales fell about 2.8% in the most recent fiscal‑year comparison, according to Eiler’s summary of California Department of Tax and Fee Administration data. He explained that municipalities with logistics or distribution hubs — such as Ontario and Lancaster — can show outsized taxable‑sales spikes because transactions are recorded where they occur, not necessarily where the purchaser is domiciled or where sales tax revenue ultimately accrues to a city.

On housing, Eiler said Santa Rosa’s forecast is approximately 1.5% down over the next year, which he characterized as “basically a flat market” within the margin of error. Factors include slightly higher local inventory relative to demand and an older regional median age compared with many Southern California markets. “If we can avoid a major economic correction, we should be able to at least have pretty decent support for current housing prices,” he said.

Eiler presented a jobs outlook that projects roughly 5,000 additional workers in Santa Rosa by the end of the decade, with most gains coming from health‑care employment. He urged staff and council to watch retail and taxable‑sales trends, holiday season consumer behavior, business entry and exit rates, and the evolving role of health care in regional employment.

During question-and-answer, Council member Alvarez asked whether taxable‑sales anomalies in Ontario and Lancaster reflected local strategic advantages; Eiler attributed the patterns to logistics and distribution activity recorded on site rather than to guaranteed sales‑tax revenue for those municipalities. On housing, Alvarez asked whether inventory differences explained the softer market; Eiler pointed to somewhat higher inventory and an older median age locally. When asked about artificial intelligence, Eiler said research identifies sectors at higher risk of automation and that adoption speed and potential legislation will shape labor impacts but that timing and magnitude remain uncertain.

Eiler’s work for the city is under a services contract that will deliver four written economic insights annually, two biannual presentations to the subcommittee, an annual state‑of‑the‑Santa‑Rosa‑economy report to full City Council and ongoing monthly support to staff. The annual report is intended to reach full Council ahead of budget decisions so members can consider economic trends when evaluating fiscal choices.

The subcommittee thanked Eiler for the briefing; there was no public comment on the presentation.