PFMC outreach: scientists report mixed signals across groundfish assessments; uncertainty shapes next steps

Scientists from the Northwest Fisheries Science Center presented findings from the 2025 groundfish assessment cycle at a Pacific Fishery Management Council outreach session. The hybrid session included short briefings on five benchmark assessments and two updates followed by extended audience Q&A.

Presenters described a mix of outcomes. Yellowtail rockfish was characterized as healthy relative to the 40% management target (Kiva Oken said the fraction of unfished spawning output in 2025 is "around 62%"), but methodological changes to how commercial age samples were weighted led to lower fishery limits (OFLs) than earlier models. Several other stocks — including California quillback and chilipepper rockfish — showed higher recent recruitment or larger population-size estimates compared with previous assessments, changes that presenters attributed to new age and growth data, revised natural mortality assumptions and longer survey time series.

The yelloweye update showed a fraction of unfished spawning output of 40.1% in 2025, putting that stock just above the Council’s rebuilding target; analysts warned that different plausible longevity (natural mortality) assumptions could move the status under alternative states of nature. The widow rockfish update triggered a recommendation for supplemental review: new data and re-examination of some length/discard inputs changed the perceived productivity and led the Groundfish Subcommittee and SSC to request further analysis before final SSC advice.

A recurring theme were the limits and opportunities of available data. Presenters described exploratory work to use observer and other fishery-dependent data as indices of abundance, and they described an empirical "weighted-age" approach intended to capture variation in growth across time and space. Industry participants said local fishing hotspots and gear/market timing can create patterns that simple coastwide trends do not capture; scientists agreed spatial heterogeneity and movement are difficult to model but are being considered in planned supplemental analyses.

What happens next: the SSC and Council will consider scientific uncertainty in recommendations (including p-star choices and buffers) and the widow update will undergo a supplemental review in October followed by final SSC consideration in November. The session organizers requested feedback on communication materials ("At-a-glance" summaries and risk tables) and noted that the recorded presentation and briefing materials will be posted prior to the Council’s agenda discussion.