Iowa City schools model shows unspent balance vulnerable to small SSA and enrollment declines
Summary
CFO presented a multi-year financial model showing how state SSA rates and small annual enrollment declines can erode the district's unspent (carryover) balance over several years; the board emphasized monitoring and asked staff to return with detailed spring budget updates.
The board received a detailed presentation from the district’s finance team on how state Supplemental State Aid (SSA) rates and enrollment trajectories affect the district’s multi-year financial outlook. Chief Financial Officer Adam (speaker 21) used a live model to illustrate scenarios: a 2% SSA assumption produces a temporary peak in the district’s unspent balance, while repeated lower SSA rates or sustained enrollment declines push the projection down over the next 5–6 years.
Key points: Adam explained why a 2% SSA assumption is a reasonable baseline for planning but acknowledged volatility tied to legislative outcomes and elections. He described how the state's budget guarantee mechanism can blunt immediate reductions but also delay structural adjustments. Under a plausible “worst-case” set of assumptions (repeated enrollment declines and SSA near 1–1.25%), the model showed the district could see materially reduced carryover by fiscal 31 without proactive adjustments.
Board reaction: Directors asked whether expenditure assumptions automatically scaled down with enrollment declines; Adam said they do not—expenditure cuts require deliberate administrative actions (attrition, adjustments to sections or support staff). Several directors praised the modeling and the buffer provided by the district’s current unspent balance, noting it buys time to plan targeted responses rather than forcing immediate cuts.
Next steps: Adam said a more detailed version with point estimates will be presented next month to inform negotiations and budget planning; the board asked for iterative updates during the spring budgeting cycle and for scenarios tied to different negotiation outcomes and SSA assumptions.
Attribution: CFO Adam presented the model and its assumptions; Superintendent Degner placed the presentation in the context of negotiation targets and staffing; several directors (including Director 16 and Director 11) asked clarifying questions about the model’s sensitivity to SSA and enrollment.
