NESDEC fall update: Timberlane enrollment decline slows; district asks for Sandown‑specific detail

A representative from NESDEC reviewed the fall enrollment projection report and compared NESDEC forecasts with Timberlane’s official October 1 counts and historical data going back to 2003–04. The presenter said the district’s decline has moderated from earlier steeper drops and that “their projections and what they projected that we are gonna have and then what we have is very close,” noting differences were usually small.

Board members pressed for more granular town‑level analysis. Mark asked whether recent Sandown subdivision approvals and expected new families were reflected in the NESDEC numbers; the presenter said he did not have the Sandown breakout on hand but would report back in December with Sandown‑specific projections and a summary of NESDEC’s methodology (building permits, demographic modeling and other inputs).

Board members also asked about counts for K–12 nonpublic and choice‑in/choice‑out numbers; the presenter said the nonpublic counts are not consistently reported to the district or state and therefore may be unavailable, and recommended Timberlane staff follow up for local estimates. Several board members reiterated that small year‑to‑year enrollment shifts do not translate automatically into immediate staffing reductions because students are distributed across grades and course offerings.

Action and follow up: NESDEC will return in December with Sandown‑specific projection detail and a summary of methodology so the board and district staff can assess subdivision impacts and model sensitivity.