MGT consultants presented enrollment forecasts and capacity analyses for Cumberland County Schools, saying the district’s current enrollment is approximately 49,500 students and may rise to about 51,000 before trending more slowly thereafter.

Dr. Lance Richards, the lead MGT presenter, explained the forecasting inputs: birth rates, cohort survival/mobility and student yield from housing development. “If you’re gonna have a party in 10 days and they’re calling for rain, you kinda go, yeah. I’ll keep an eye on that,” Richards said, using a weather analogy to communicate the decreasing certainty of forecasts at longer horizons.

Using a functional-capacity framework that excludes portable classrooms, consultants said ideal utilization is roughly 80–95 percent (with 85–95 percent often cited as the sweet spot). The district’s high schools averaged about 88 percent utilization while middle schools averaged 71 percent. The consultant presented a district-wide functional middle-school capacity of about 14,600 and current middle-school enrollment of about 10,300 — roughly 4,200 empty seats districtwide.

Consultants noted several local caveats: specialty-program campuses (for example, Ramsey Street and Cross Creek Early College) have preset or program-driven enrollments that change utilization snapshots; portables were excluded from capacity calculations because they are considered temporary solutions; and the presence of Fort Bragg (now Fort Liberty) creates recurring military-related population swings that can change enrollment suddenly.

The consultant team also highlighted school-level examples: Douglas Byrd operates at about 63 percent utilization; South View and Terry Sanford operate near high utilization (South View about 97 percent, Terry Sanford about 90 percent); some small elementary campuses show large percent swings from small absolute changes (Alma Eason presented at 125 percent in the snapshot because non-classroom spaces had been repurposed into classrooms).

Consultants recommended that the district and board factor these utilization patterns into capital and program planning, and reiterated that no decisions had been made. The district will post the presentation online and open an online survey for community input before any board action.