Richardson Independent School District staff and consultants told the Board of Trustees that the district should expect a modest but steady decline in resident students over the coming years, and that planning should concentrate on the first three to five years of that trend.

Consultants from MGT presented maps, birth‑rate and mobility analyses and unit‑by‑unit estimates of student yield from housing. The presentation said resident enrollment in October of the most recent school year was roughly in the mid‑30,000s (the presenters gave the baseline as about 35,300 resident students) and showed a projected drop to about 33,750 in five years and to roughly 32,000 in 10 years if recent trends continue. Staff reported an anticipated decline of about 488 PK–12 students in the district’s near‑term forecast (one year out) in the scenario the consultants used.

Why it matters: district officials said the forecast will inform budget planning, transportation and facility decisions and the district’s bond and capital planning. A smaller student population affects state funding, property tax revenue projections and classroom staffing needs.

Key findings and staff recommendations

- Declining births and housing mix: Presenters showed that births have fallen in many of the district’s zip codes and that different housing types yield different numbers of students. The consultant said a zip‑code level view showed unequal birth trends across the district.

- Mobility and transfers: The study separates resident students from nonresident transfers and magnet attractors; some schools show high usage of magnet or transfer programs, which reduces resident utilization percentages at certain campuses.

- Multifamily vs. single‑family housing: Analysts said many high‑end multifamily developments generate relatively few school‑age children; single‑family neighborhoods generate a higher yield of students. The presenters recommended tracking major redevelopment and apartment renovations because those projects can change yields over time.

- Forecast horizon: Consultants recommended the Board prioritize planning for the first three to five years of the forecast, saying confidence falls the farther out the projection goes.

Board and staff reaction

Superintendent Brenda Brandon (as identified in the meeting record) and trustees questioned the consultants about particular neighborhoods, including a dense apartment area in Trustee Harris’s district. Trustee Harris asked staff to continue coordinating with city planners and developers in Richardson and neighboring cities to detect zoning changes or new projects that could alter student yield.

Cameron, an MGT analyst, described how the team geocoded students and compared current enrollment to historical residence patterns; Ms. Lennon (identified in the presentation as the consultant leading the study) told the Board the firm used unit‑by‑unit and three‑to‑five‑year rolling averages to stabilize small‑sample variation.

Staff also recommended strengthening magnet programming and considering measured expansion of district transfer options as one lever to blunt enrollment decline. Several trustees supported pursuing targeted strategies rather than broad, immediate openings.

Next steps

Board members asked staff to use the demographic report for the 2025–26 budget and forthcoming bond planning and to keep the Board updated if city planning or major housing projects appear likely to change the forecast. The district said it will continue to monitor births, mobility, apartment renovation activity and transfer patterns and to update the forecast when new data arrive.