Marissa (Austin Water staff) told the task force that inflows to the Highland Lakes — Lakes Travis and Buchanan — have fallen back to “well below average” after 2024’s temporary bump and that combined storage has been declining in recent months.

The task force reviewed a chart comparing inflows. Marissa said the light blue bars show average inflows since the reservoirs were built, dark blue bars show averages from roughly 2008–2015, green shows 2024 and purple shows January–March 2025. “We are back down to well below average inflows into the Highland Lakes during these past few months,” she said.

Why it matters: the task force and staff use combined storage in the two lakes to assess regional supply and to trigger drought‑response strategies. Marissa reminded the group that modeling and planning use those combined volumes to evaluate when emergency measures would be required.

Lower Colorado River Authority projections presented to the task force show a range of possible paths from wet to very dry through October 2025. Staff explained the LCRA-produced projections incorporate inflow and demand assumptions; task force members asked whether LCRA’s projections account for new, additional demands or assume historical demand patterns.

Paul DeFurey (task force member, District 2) asked whether the projection inputs include demand changes from new growth. An Austin Water staff member replied that LCRA’s projections “might be incorporating historical demand patterns” but said staff would ask LCRA for details.

The task force also reviewed recent drought maps from the U.S. Drought Monitor showing much of Travis County in extreme drought and parts in exceptional drought as of April 1, 2025. Staff walked through short‑term climate outlooks that indicated a higher chance of above‑average temperatures and a leaning probability toward below‑average precipitation for the upcoming season.

On ENSO, staff said the meteorological indicators had moved toward neutral probabilities but acknowledged model output and wording in the slides were confusing; members noted some forecasts still referred to lingering La Niña conditions.

Marissa summarized combined‑storage projections prepared by LCRA that extend to October 2025. The chart’s dry scenario showed combined storage declining steadily but staying above 600,000 acre‑feet through October; staff noted 600,000 acre‑feet is considered an emergency‑storage benchmark in local planning.

Task force members pressed staff on transparency about the projections. “Is that demand projection…current demand that they're just forecasting flat out through the rest of the year, or does it account for new demand on the system coming online throughout this year?” Paul asked. Staff acknowledged the question and committed to asking LCRA how demand assumptions were handled.

The update concluded with staff noting two possible paths in the near term — a weather‑driven bump in storage if spring rains are significant, or continued decline if drier conditions prevail — and with a reminder that those trajectories would influence whether emergency strategies need to be activated later in 2025.

Ending: The task force moved from the supply update into a separate agenda item that focused on evaluating near‑term water‑supply projects and reuse strategies.