Dr. Scott Pague, acting director of the Global and International Studies program and chair of political science at Indiana University–Indianapolis, told a campus lecture that American foreign policy is “at a crossroads,” presenting three distinct paths the United States could follow.

Pague said the first path would be a revitalized, U.S.-led rules-based international order in which the United States maintains alliances, strengthens institutions and integrates additional partners. The second path would be a China-led international order characterized by state-centered economic ties and diminished emphasis on democracy and human rights. The third path, which Pague described using Charles Kupchan’s framework, would be a world with no single dominant power — a multipolar, regionally driven world he summarized as “no one’s world.”

Pague framed the post-1945 order through the lens of hegemonic stability theory and the institutions that flowed from it: NATO as the security framework, the Marshall Plan for European recovery, and the Bretton Woods institutions — the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade that became the World Trade Organization — as the economic core. He said the postwar system produced large gains for the United States and for Western Europe, Japan and other partners, but noted that many parts of the Global South did not benefit similarly.

On the first scenario, Pague argued the U.S. could sustain a liberal international order by maintaining alliances, deepening cooperation among democracies and bringing countries such as India, Brazil, Ghana and Mexico closer to the core of that system. He said the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrated the value of alliance membership in practice, noting that Putin’s action “proved himself to be the most effective spokesperson for a U.S.-based, rules-based international order.” He warned, however, that sustaining this approach requires continuing public and congressional willingness to bear the costs of long-term security commitments.

On the second scenario, Pague described a potential China-led order that would emphasize state-directed economic ties, infrastructure investments such as the Belt and Road Initiative, and the creation or strengthening of China-centered institutions (for example the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization). He argued such an order would likely deprioritize democracy and human-rights promotion and rely on more transactional diplomacy. He also identified demographic and economic constraints that could limit China’s ability to translate size into sustained global leadership: a rapidly aging population, a falling working-age population and a national fertility rate that Pague said is “about 1 or barely 1” (well below the 2.1 replacement rate). Pague said China’s population began declining in 2023 and that aging will raise pension and health spending pressure that could compete with military and power-projection spending.

For the third scenario, Pague said a multipolar world would see medium-sized powers — for example Brazil, Turkey, India, Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia — exercise greater regional influence, producing a more fragmented international landscape with more frequent bilateral or regional contests over interests and security.

Pague identified two main challenges to continued U.S. leadership: a relative decline in U.S. global power as economic and demographic weight shifts toward East Asia, and political choices inside the U.S. that reduce willingness to lead. He criticized untargeted trade measures that, he argued, have hit allies and integrated supply chains and suggested a coordinated approach focused on China would be more effective. He also warned that the work of managing a rules-based order is ongoing and requires continual adaptation to new technologies, climate change and shifting geopolitics.

The lecture concluded with audience questions about China’s demographic trends, government incentives to raise birth rates, the practical effects of tariffs on integrated supply chains and regional tensions such as China–India border incidents. Pague said China abandoned the one-child policy and now encourages two or three children with subsidies and tax credits but that cultural and economic factors have kept fertility low.