Braintree’s Committee of Ways and Means heard an overview of the mayor’s FY2026 revenue forecast on Thursday, May 1, in which Finance Director Mike Esmond said the town is budgeting $175.7 million in operating revenues and expects base revenue growth of about 3.2% excluding free cash.

The revenue forecast, Esmond told the panel, assumes roughly $3.9 million in year‑over‑year new tax levy revenue tied to Proposition 2½ growth and new growth, and a budgeted new‑growth assumption of $800,000 for FY2026. “We feel that the $800,000 forecast is a good approximation,” Esmond said, noting building permit trends through March that support the estimate.

Why it matters: the revenue picture will determine how departments are funded in FY2026 and whether the town needs to propose further revenue measures or program cuts in later years. Esmond and the auditor emphasized that state aid remains uncertain and that one‑time sources used in FY2025 should not be assumed recurring.

Key fiscal items and assumptions

- Operating revenues: $175,700,000 forecast for FY2026, described by Esmond as the town’s operating revenue baseline.

- Base revenue growth: about 3.2% year over year when excluding the use of free cash from FY2025.

- Tax levy and new growth: Esmond said the tax levy forecast yields about $3.9 million in new levy capacity for FY2026 reflecting Proposition 2½ (the normal 2½% growth plus measured new growth). The budget includes an $800,000 new‑growth assumption for FY2026.

- State aid: the budget assumes essentially flat net local aid (about 0.1% growth) in the mayor’s submitted numbers; Esmond noted House 1 proposed larger increases but state assessments and charges (notably charter school tuition) reduce the net benefit to Braintree. “If House 1 were to be the final number…we could be getting less local aid than the prior year,” Esmond said, adding the final state budget remains subject to conference committee action.

- Local receipts: overall projected growth from FY2025 is roughly 6%. The single largest local‑receipt driver called out in the presentation was the proposed year‑two increase in the residential trash‑collection fee of $50 (the second of a three‑year schedule), which Esmond said is the largest single contributor to the increase in local receipts.

- Motor‑vehicle excise: Esmond projected $7.5 million for FY2026 and said initial commitment data will likely prompt a modest upward revision.

- Hotel tax and meals tax: Esmond cautioned that hotel tax totals for FY2025 were depressed by the temporary closure of a major hotel after a fire (identified in the presentation as the Hyatt), which he estimated reduced quarterly hotel tax receipts by roughly $100,000 in the third quarter.

- Pilot (payment‑in‑lieu) agreements: the forecast assumes a modest increase (about 5.5%) tied to stepped increases in some longstanding pilot agreements and ongoing negotiations with large payers, including Massport and a utility identified as Beld.

- Investment income: the budget assumes roughly $1.974 million in investment income in FY2026; Esmond said results remain sensitive to federal interest‑rate movements and the town’s mix of short‑ and long‑term vehicles.

- Stormwater debt service: $64,771 in stormwater‑fund debt service tied to bond refunding will be covered in FY2026 by retained earnings from the stormwater fund to hold rates flat this year; Esmond said rates will be revisited in FY2027 alongside upcoming regulatory changes.

Liability, settlements and one‑time items

Esmond summarized the financing for the Weichl settlement and related borrowing. The town issued debt and short‑term notes to cover a roughly $11.9 million financing package tied to costs from that matter; Esmond said the budget does not assume timing of future insurance recoveries and that about $500,000 in net insurance recovery proceeds have been recorded to date. “We will likely recognize them as revenue in fiscal 25, which will...reduce the amount we need to go long to finance the balance,” he said.

Council questions and staff responses

Councilors probed several areas during the Q&A: the volatility of investment income as the Federal Reserve adjusts rates; the high personal‑property valuation captured in FY2025 (Esmond said a dedicated personal‑property valuation engagement produced an unusually large $28.2 million personal‑property growth figure in FY2025 and the $800,000 FY2026 assumption treats that spike as largely nonrecurring); and details behind pilot agreements (Esmond and town auditor Sean McGoldrick said the largest pilots historically are Beld, Massport and the Landing, with McGoldrick offering approximate FY2025 figures during the hearing).

Councilors also urged more systematic tracking of grants. Councilor Maglio said the council lacks a central way to track town grant applications and awards and asked for regular reporting. Esmond and McGoldrick agreed to provide more retrospective grant detail and to invite the town’s grants staff to a future finance hearing.

Out‑year outlook

The presentation included a 3‑ to 4‑year affordability forecast showing projected deficits in FY2027–FY2029 driven by baseline cost growth in schools, benefits and debt service. Esmond said the cumulative deficits remain modest relative to total revenue (he described them as roughly 1.1–1.2% of revenues over the multi‑year window) but stressed the need for continued expenditure discipline and to capture development‑related growth in later years.

Votes at a glance

- Approval of minutes (02/24/2025, 03/04/2025, 03/10/2025): motion made and seconded; recorded as unanimous. (Motion recorded on the transcript as “So moved.” “Second.” “All in favor? — Aye.”)

- Table orders 25018, 25019 and 25020 to May 5: motion to table to May 5 was moved and seconded; recorded as unanimous.

- Adjournment: motion carried unanimously.

What’s next

The Committee of Ways and Means will continue FY2026 budget hearings through May; Esmond and the town auditor are expected to appear at subsequent sessions to present departmental details, debt schedules and any updates on grants, pilot negotiations and state aid.

(Reporting from the Town of Braintree Committee of Ways and Means hearing, May 1, 2025.)