The Education Estimating Conference adopted a forecast methodology known as “Option B” for counting students reported in multiple settings, after staff presented updated midyear enrollment and scholarship data and members raised concerns about volatile private scholarship participation.

Elizabeth Goodman, EDR, reported the midyear estimate for 2024–25: "For today's MYE, the EDR MYE stands at 3,180,797.26 FTE, which is 10,496.25 FTE higher than the appropriated." The conference voted to use Option B, in which the FTE for students matched in both a district and a scholarship setting is split between the district and the scholarship funding organization (SFO) rather than credited entirely to the district.

Why it matters: That allocation affects the state’s K–12 funding calculations and the Florida Education Finance Program (FEFP) forecast because scholarship counts and district counts both feed into appropriation calculations. Conference participants said the change is intended to better reflect where instructional resources are delivered while acknowledging uncertainty in scholarship program participation and tax‑credit revenue flows.

EDR and other presenters described three principal data drivers discussed at the meeting: updated district survey recalibrations, large short‑term swings in private scholarship participation, and SFO carry‑forward balances. EDR described historical and current-year calculations: for 2023–24, appropriated FTE figures and final calculations differed (transcript figures cited by staff), and for 2024–25 the department’s midyear estimate (the EDR MYE) exceeded the appropriated FTE by 10,496.25.

Conference discussion focused on two scholarship universes that interact with the FEFP: FTC private school scholarships and the FESEO/PEP scholarship programs. Elizabeth Goodman and colleagues presented program counts and participation differences. On FTC private school scholarships, staff said the July forecast counted about 75,984 FTC scholarships, while program records through January showed variation: "there were 53,466 unique students funded in the FTC bridal school program," and "Ultimately, the January participation is at 38,901 students," a swing staff described as large and difficult to reconcile. By contrast, staff reported the PEP (FESEO) side as more stable: the July forecast listed 44,425; through early payments EDR saw 57,006 unique funded students and January participation of 59,505.

Staff attributed part of the FTC volatility to differences in how funded accounts and enrolled students were recorded. Elizabeth Goodman said a fall snapshot from Step Up For Students showed 53,152 funded FTC scholarship accounts on Oct. 18, 2024, but only 45,660 of those accounts were matched to students enrolled in a private school — suggesting some funded accounts were not ultimately associated with an enrolled private‑school student when EDR checked enrollment status. That mismatch, staff said, helps explain why FTC participation did not align with funding assumptions made earlier in the revenue and credit forecasts.

EDR also described the forecast’s treatment of SFO carry‑forwards and estimates provided by Step Up For Students. Staff presented a combined carry‑forward starting point of $194,695,462 that underlies the forecast horizon, and said Step Up for Students provided an estimated carry forward of $93,695,462. When asked whether EDR receives a detailed breakdown of how SFO carry‑forward funds are allocated (for example required minimum expenditures in the carry‑forward year versus the authorized 25% transfer), staff said they do not receive that level of detail; they receive only gross donation and carry‑forward estimates from SFOs.

Policy options and final action: EDR presented two technical options for handling matched students. Option A credited the FTE to the district (as was done for 2023–24), while Option B split the FTE between the district and the scholarship. After discussion, representatives from House and Senate budget/appropriations offices signaled they preferred Option B. Denise Popin, House Budget, and others said they were comfortable with Option B; Tim Iwell, Senate Education Appropriations, said he "echo[ed] Denise's comments" and also preferred B. Amy Baker, EDR, said, "So, we're gonna adopt b." The conference directed EDR to send the adopted files to IT to be loaded into the forecasting system and to notify districts when they can submit forecast adjustments.

Follow up and uncertainties: Participants asked staff to investigate the causes of the FTC participation drop and the mechanics that caused funded accounts to appear without matching enrollment. EDR staff described possible corrective steps — adjusting coding or administrative procedures with SFOs — but said technical and mechanical issues would need further exploration. Amy Baker remarked on the degree of surprise: "But it that was this is probably for me 1 of the more shocking things. Shocking in the sense that that's like, woah, what happened?"

EDR told the conference the adopted February forecast will be provided to districts for adjustment requests, that a forecast team review is expected in mid‑March, and that district forecasts will be presented at the next conference. Staff said they will update the forecast after the March revenue estimating conference and when SFO spring data and district submitted adjustments are available.

Ending: The conference adopted Option B to proceed to the next forecasting steps, while flagging scholarship participation volatility and the need for follow‑up with SFOs and program administrators. EDR and legislative budget staff said they will continue to investigate mismatches between funded scholarship accounts and private‑school enrollment and will update the forecast and carry‑forward estimates at the next scheduled forecasting cycle.