Arlington School District staff presented a preview of projected student enrollment for 2025–26, describing three standard projection methods and recommending the board consider a conservative “medium” April roll-up projection when it votes on an enrollment figure at the board’s Jan. 27 meeting.

The presentation, given by Dr. Sweeting on behalf of Brian Lewis, explained that the district uses full-time-equivalent (FTE) counts—calculated over the September–June school year—to set staffing and funding. Staff described three projection methods: an April roll-up, a weighted historical average, and an OSPI cohort-survival model. The district recommended the medium April roll-up because it is more conservative and less sensitive to short-term volatility.

Why it matters: The officially approved projected enrollment number determines certificated and classified staffing and related budget assumptions for the coming school year. Using a conservative projection helps avoid over-hiring if enrollment does not materialize; being too conservative can, conversely, leave schools short on staff if enrollment exceeds projections.

Key points from staff and board discussion

- Methodologies explained: Dr. Sweeting summarized the three approaches and said the OSPI cohort-survival model is most sensitive to recent events, while the April roll-up is typically more conservative. The weighted historical average incorporates transition rates between grades.

- Current-year variance: Dr. Sweeting said the district is currently about 75 FTE higher than the board-approved projection for the current year based on available September-to-date data.

- Kindergarten decline: Multiple directors and staff noted kindergarten enrollment is lower than anticipated; staff said lower kindergarten cohorts are the principal driver of projected decreases in the elementary band and the net 40-FTE reduction in the district’s medium projection.

- Budgeted counts shown: Staff displayed a table with the board-approved budgeted FTE for the current year (documented in presentation as 5,481) and also referenced a related running-start figure (5,422) used in calculations; staff explained how running start adjustments and program counts affect the totals.

- Local factors and housing: Board members asked about local housing construction and whether new townhomes or single-family developments will increase student yields; staff said townhouses typically yield fewer students than single-family homes and that some single-family projects are in planning.

Board action and next steps

No enrollment projection was approved at the meeting. Staff asked the board to consider the medium April roll-up projection and return for a final board vote on Jan. 27. Staff also noted the district reviews enrollment closely in the first 10 days of school to identify hot spots and adjust staffing if needed.

Ending: Staff will provide the board with any additional updated data between now and Jan. 27; the board’s approved enrollment number will be used to finalize staffing and budget planning for the 2025–26 school year.