Michelle Ali Shahi, fiscal analyst to the committee, told the panel that undergraduate enrollments at Washington’s public four-year institutions declined from fall 2023 to fall 2024 by about 8% for total undergraduates and about 10% for resident undergraduates, and that much of the drop occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The presentation covered a 10-year span (fall 2015–fall 2024). Shahi said enrollments at the state’s six public four-year institutions totaled about 90,700 undergraduates in fall 2024, and the 34 community and technical colleges served about 137,000 students that term. She said research universities and comprehensive regional institutions experienced different patterns: research institutions showed smaller net declines over the decade while comprehensive institutions declined more sharply, with some variation by campus.

The committee’s session then turned to state financial-aid programs. Shahi described the Washington College Grant (WCG) as the state’s largest need-based financial program, created by the 2019 Workforce Education Investment Act and made an entitlement in 2021. She said the WCG served almost 99,000 students in fiscal year 2024 and that expenditures for that program were about $468,000,000 for the year. Shahi explained maximum award amounts are defined in statute by sector and are prorated by median family income ranges.

Shahi also reviewed the Washington College Grant for Apprenticeships, which was expanded in 2019 to include apprentices; she said expenditures for the apprenticeship grant were about $3,000,000 in fiscal year 2024 and roughly 836 apprentices were served. She noted that legislation requires the State Board for Community and Technical Colleges (and approval by the Washington Student Achievement Council, WSAC) to permit apprentices to access the grant through college financial-aid offices beginning in fiscal year 2026.

The College Bound Scholarship, an early-commitment, last-dollar entitlement for eligible low-income students (and students in foster care), served about 19,000 students in fiscal year 2024, Shahi said. She added that College Bound recipients also receive the Washington College Grant and that the College Bound award is adjusted by sector; the transcript’s figure for fiscal-year expenditures for College Bound was unclear and is not specified in this article.

Shahi outlined recent budget changes and proposals: the maximum WCG award eligibility was expanded over several budgets from 55% to 65% of median family income (MFI), and she said the governor’s proposed budget includes an additional $163,000,000 to cover caseload adjustments for the WCG in the 2025–27 period. She also described a Bridge Grant (one-time stipend for additional college expenses beyond tuition and fees), noting current base funding of about $55,000,000 for the biennium and that the funding is not automatically adjusted for caseload growth; Shahi said this base funding is sufficient for approximately 55,000 recipients under current assumptions.

Senators asked several follow-up questions. Senator Schasler asked for comparisons with neighboring states’ enrollment trends; Shahi said she would gather that information. Senator Wellman and others asked how FAFSA (the federal aid application) interacts with state aid; Shahi said students who receive the Washington College Grant must complete the FAFSA and that federal aid (for example, Pell Grants) may be layered with state awards depending on the individual calculation. Senators Gildan and Braun asked about state funding trends and state spending per student; Shahi said state spending for higher-education institutions increased over the period and that she can provide institution-level funding-per-student calculations to the committee.

Shahi told the committee that caseload forecasts come from the Caseload Forecast Council and draw on multiple data sources, including state population projections, FAFSA completion rates, high-school cohort counts and institutional enrollment data. She said the November Forecast was the basis for the fiscal-year estimates shown in her slides.

The presentation contained additional institution-level slides and appendices the analyst said would be made available to committee members.