Dr. Tim Lambert, the consultant presenting the district’s updated enrollment projections on April 24, told the Haverford Township School District Board of Directors that the district should expect overall enrollment to fall as a larger birth cohort from about 2016–2020 moves through the system and lower live births in subsequent years produce smaller kindergarten classes.

“This is actually the third time I’m coming to your school district to look at your enrollment projections,” Dr. Lambert said. He explained the methodology used to generate the projections: live births by municipality, grade‑to‑grade transition rates, neighborhood spatial analysis and new‑student inflows across the district’s five elementary catchments.

Key findings and context

- Live births: Dr. Lambert said live births for the district have hovered around 600 in recent years; the district’s projections use a roughly 600-birth baseline because statewide municipal live‑birth data were available only through 2023.
- Pandemic dip and cohort bubble: the consultant described a sharp fall in live births after the pandemic followed by an earlier influx of children entering the district between 2016 and 2020. That mid‑decade influx produces a “bubble” that will matriculate through and temporarily lift counts at the middle and high school levels before overall enrollment trends move downward.
- Neighborhood patterns: using spatial mapping of student addresses back decades, Lambert showed that the increase in new students was concentrated in some neighborhoods and not uniformly spread across all elementary catchments, which explains why some elementary schools saw larger class sizes than others.
- Grade‑to‑grade and cohort retention: Lambert said the district retains an above‑average percentage of cohorts through the grades compared with some other districts; he cited roughly a 28–30% cumulative loss from kindergarten to 12th grade over many years, which he described as “one of the better percentages we’ve seen.”
- Special education and support services: the presentation showed growth in the district’s in‑house autistic‑support population and other special‑education services; Dr. Lambert flagged that these programmatic shifts should factor into capacity and classroom‑space planning.

Board questions and clarifications

Board members asked about the effect of school improvements on enrollment patterns; Dr. Lambert said newer or renovated schools can attract families and help stabilize enrollment in those buildings, but he emphasized that local housing turnover and broader county birth‑rate trends are the primary drivers of long‑term change.

On the special‑education counts, board members requested clarification about source data; Dr. Lambert explained that student counts come from Pennsylvania Department of Education collections (October 1 student submissions and December 1 special‑education submissions) and that the consultant relies on those datasets for cohort and programmatic calculations.

What the district plans to do next

Lambert and district staff said the projections will be used to inform facility planning, the timing of capital projects and capacity needs. The presentation was framed as a 10‑year projection; staff said they will continue to refine the model annually with new PIMS submissions, building occupancy data and housing‑market indicators.

Ending

Board members said the analysis will help inform near‑term capital choices — such as the Coopertown renovation discussed later in the meeting — and suggested the district continue to monitor live births, housing turnover and special‑education demand as it finalizes project schedules and budgets.