CBC research staff presented spring travel results and a full-year visitor forecast, reporting strong March hotel performance, softer April results, continued growth in short-term rentals and a cautiously positive outlook for 2025.

Bruce (research staff) said Davidson County hotel occupancy in March rose to 71.8 percent, rooms sold grew 3.6 percent and RevPAR increased 3.9 percent, producing a roughly 6 percent increase in room revenue year over year. He attributed March’s strength to a shift in the Easter holiday and a heavy event calendar, including multiple conventions at Music City Center and the Gaylord.

April was less robust: occupancy was reported at 71.8 percent but down 3.9 percent year over year, the county inventory increased to about 41,500 rooms (a 2.5 percent increase), average daily rate fell about 4 percent to $207 and room revenues declined 5.6 percent. Combining March and April to even out the holiday shift, Bruce said, “a fair way to view the spring performance so far is combining March and April,” with demand up about 1 percent and room revenue flat for the two-month span.

Short-term rentals continued to grow: listings countywide exceeded 9,300, with listing room nights sold up 4.7 percent for March–April and taxable lodging revenues from short-term rentals up 2.8 percent for the same period.

On forecasted annual figures, Bruce reported Tourism Economics’ projections for Davidson County of roughly 17,300,000 visitors in 2025 (about a 2.5 percent increase from the prior year), with roughly 11,500,000 overnight visitors. Of overnight visitors, Bruce said about 35 percent are classified as group or business visitors and the remainder as leisure; staff projected about 8,000,000 visitors staying in hotels consuming roughly 10,000,000 room nights and generating about $2,000,000,000 in room revenue. Staff also cited a projected $11,490,000,000 in total visitor spending for the county for the year.

Research staff and commissioners discussed near-term pacing for May through July bookings (data as of May 7) and event-driven demand drivers such as CMA Fest, graduation weekends, and major concerts at Nissan Stadium and Bridgestone Arena. Bruce noted volatility in August pacing and emphasized that event timing and the distribution of major events affect month-to-month comparisons.

Staff also addressed international trends: Tourism Economics was cited as predicting about a 9 percent national decline in international visitation to the U.S.; for Nashville staff noted a possible 15 percent decrease in international visitation and said Canada — a large single market for Nashville — was forecast to decline about 23 percent. Staff framed Nashville as somewhat insulated from international declines because international travelers comprise a smaller share of the market than in many larger coastal destinations.

There were questions from commissioners about how visitor spending breaks down by lodging, dining and transportation; staff said the vendor breaks out categories and offered to provide those details upon request.