Commissioners received a briefing May 28 on forest management modeling tied to implementation of the Habitat Conservation Plan (HCP) and the county’s forest-land revenue outlook.

Staff described multiple modeling scenarios used to forecast harvest levels, carbon sequestration, future forest structure and long-term harvestability over a 150-year time horizon. Modeling included unconstrained ‘‘harvest everything when ready’’ scenarios (which staff said were infeasible due to staffing and contractor limits), steady annual harvest scenarios at levels such as 185 million, 195 million and 205 million board feet, and a “maximize harvest” scenario that would seek higher short-term revenue while still meeting HCP constraints.

Staff said two models were considered unrealistic (harvesting everything that is immediately "right" and a 120–150-year rotation model) and were effectively off the table. The core discussion for the Board of Forestry and the county’s Forest Trust Lands Advisory Committee (FTLAC) will be whether to hold to a steady annual harvest (examples given: 185–205 million board feet) or to pursue a more variable, maximized-harvest approach that could produce significantly more board feet in certain years but requires careful long-term financial planning.

Commissioners discussed banking revenue in good years to prepare for later years when harvestable volumes decline because of HCP constraints, and whether counties might consider leveling arrangements across counties to smooth revenues. Staff said leveling has been discussed but counties have not historically supported cross-county leveling. The county will participate in FTLAC and Board of Forestry discussions; commissioners asked staff to coordinate positions and share comments ahead of the Board of Forestry meeting (noted on the calendar in early June). No board action was taken; the briefing prepared commissioners for FTLAC/Board of Forestry deliberations.