The Pacific Fishery Management Council on April 13 accepted a catch‑only projection prepared by the Southwest Fisheries Science Center for Pacific mackerel and adopted harvest guidelines for two consecutive fishing years (2025–26 and 2026–27). The SSC endorsed catch‑only projections as the best scientific information available for management under the assessment terms of reference and assigned the projection category 2d while noting elevated uncertainty.

Key numbers and decisions endorsed by the SSC and adopted by the council
- Age‑1+ biomass estimates (H1+): 61,737 metric tons (07/01/2025) and 67,954 metric tons (07/01/2026).
- Overfishing limits (OFL): 12,965 metric tons for 2025–26 and 14,270 metric tons for 2026–27 (SSC endorsement of model outputs).
- The council adopted the CPSMT/ CPSAS recommended P* (0.45) and harvest guideline/ABC values appearing in the CPSMT tables for the 2 fishing years.
- The council adopted incidental set‑asides of 1,000 metric tons per year and associated ACTs equal to harvest guideline minus 1,000 metric tons (as recommended by the CPSMT).
- Incidental landing allowances: 45% in CPS fisheries when Pacific mackerel are landed with other CPS; up to 3 metric tons per landing allowed in non‑CPS fisheries.

Why the catch‑only projection was used: SWFSC produced a catch‑only projection following methods from the 2023 benchmark but used updated catch through 2023 and catch for 2024. Because the projection relies heavily on the stock–recruit relationship rather than recent survey information (the projection’s biomass estimate is driven largely by modeled recruitment), the SSC and CPSMT noted elevated uncertainty and recommended caution. The SSC nevertheless endorsed the projection as the best science available for the council’s decision given the terms of reference and data available.

What happens next: council staff and management teams will apply the harvest guidelines, ACTs and incidental set‑asides in monitoring and in‑season management. The SSC noted that if the ABC for 2025–26 were set below the harvest guideline used to compute the 2026–27 OFL, the later OFL could be recalculated; the council may revisit specifications if new survey information or an update assessment becomes available.

Speakers quoted or cited
- Alex Jensen (presentation of catch‑only projection, SWFSC).
- Will Satterwhite (SSC chair; SSC endorsement and discussion of uncertainty).
- Lisa Hillier (CPSMT; recommended P*, incidental set‑aside and ACT approach).
- Matt Everingham and CPSAS (industry/advice about maintaining flexibility for opportunistic fishing).

Speakers (attribution whitelist)
[{"name":"Alex Jensen","role_title":"Stock assessment author (SWFSC)","affiliation_type":"government","affiliation_name":"Southwest Fisheries Science Center","first_reference":{"timecode":"12842.266","transcript_line_range":[1,1]}},{"name":"Will Satterwhite","role_title":"SSC representative","affiliation_type":"government","affiliation_name":"Scientific and Statistical Committee","first_reference":{"timecode":"12842.266","transcript_line_range":[1,1]}},{"name":"Lisa Hillier","role_title":"CPS Management Team member","affiliation_type":"government","affiliation_name":"Coastal Pelagic Species Management Team","first_reference":{"timecode":"13319.811","transcript_line_range":[1,1]}},{"name":"Matt Everingham","role_title":"Live bait fisherman","affiliation_type":"business","affiliation_name":"Everingham Brothers Bait Company","first_reference":{"timecode":"9400.87","transcript_line_range":[1,1]}}]

Authorities
[{"type":"policy","name":"Coastal Pelagic Species Fishery Management Plan (CPS FMP)","citation":"CPS FMP","referenced_by":["g4-2025-pacific-mackerel"]}]

Actions
[{"kind":"other","identifiers":{"agenda_item_id":"G4"},"motion":"Adopt Pacific mackerel catch‑only projection and associated harvest guidelines, ABCs and incidental allowances as presented in CPSMT supplemental report 1 (tables 1 and 2); adopt incidental set‑aside of 1,000 mt and ACTs equal to harvest guideline minus 1,000 mt; incidental landings allowance 45% for CPS and up to 3 mt per landing in non‑CPS fisheries.","mover":"Brianna Brady","second":"Corey Niles","vote_record":[{"member":"Council - majority","member_id":"","seat":"","vote":"yes"}],"tally":{"yes":null,"no":null,"abstain":0},"legal_threshold":{"met":null,"notes":"SSC endorsement used as best scientific information available under terms of reference."},"outcome":"approved","notes":"Motion passed unanimously; council adopted the CPSMT tables and incidental allowances.","amendments":[],"programs":[],"dependencies":[],"implementation":{"assignee_dept":"NMFS West Coast Region","follow_up_tasks":[{"task":"Implement monitoring and in‑season accountability measures for Pacific mackerel ACT/ABC","due_date":"2025-07-01","status":"planned"}],"reporting_requirements":"NMFS to report landings and performance to council staff."}}]

Discussion_decision
{"discussion_points":["Catch‑only projection relies heavily on stock–recruit parameters rather than recent survey composition data","SSC noted projection category 2d but suggested uncertainty could be comparable to category 3","Advisory bodies urged maintaining some opportunity for the fishery and supported P* 0.45"],"directions":["Apply incidental set‑asides and ACTs as management triggers; monitor landings closely"],"decisions":["Adopted catch‑only projection, harvest guidelines, ABCs and incidental allowances for two fishing years as presented (see CPSMT tables)"]}

Clarifying_details
[{"category":"biomass_estimates","detail":"H1+ biomass projection for Pacific mackerel","value":"61737","units":"metric tons","approximate":false,"source_speaker":"Will Satterwhite"},{"category":"OFLs","detail":"OFLs for two fishing years","value":"12965 / 14270","units":"metric tons","approximate":false,"source_speaker":"Will Satterwhite"}]

Proper_names
[{"name":"Pacific mackerel","type":"other"},{"name":"Southwest Fisheries Science Center","type":"agency"},{"name":"Pacific Fishery Management Council","type":"organization"}]

Community_relevance
{"geographies":["US West Coast"],"funding_sources":[],"impact_groups":["mackerel fishery participants","bait and processing sectors","coastal communities"]}

Meeting_context
{"engagement_level":{"speakers_count":8,"duration_minutes":60,"items_count":1},"implementation_risk":"low","history":[{"date":"2023-XX-XX","note":"2023 Pacific mackerel benchmark assessment and methods"}]}

Searchable_tags":["mackerel","catch_only_projection","CPS","harvest_guideline","ACT","incidental_allowance"]

Provenance
{"transcript_segments":[{"block_id":"block_12842.266","local_start":0,"local_end":260,"evidence_excerpt":"The SSC endorses the catch only projection as the best scientific information available for use in management...endorses the overfishing limits of 12,965 metric tons for 2025 to 2026 and 14,270 metric tons for 2026 to 2027.","tc_start":"12842.266","tc_end":"13018.529","reason_code":"topicintro"},{"block_id":"block_14504.275","local_start":0,"local_end":240,"evidence_excerpt":"I move the council approve the Pacific mackerel catch only projection...adopt tables 1 and 2 in supplemental CPSMT report 1...and adopt incidental allowances including 45% in CPS and up to 3 mt in non‑CPS fisheries.","tc_start":"14504.275","tc_end":"14516.32","reason_code":"topicfinish"}] } ,