Grand Rapids — A consultant-led presentation to the Grand Rapids Planning Commission on Oct. 9 warned the city must substantially increase housing production — particularly at lower income levels — or face continued affordability pressures.

Ryan Kilpatrick, lead consultant for Housing Next and owner of Flywheel Consultants, summarized a countywide report with a city‑level element prepared with Bowen National Research. “We need 10 times more affordable housing” for the lowest income households, Kilpatrick said, adding that construction costs and insufficient subsidy make that segment especially difficult to serve.

The assessment looked at population, job growth, commuting patterns and household formation. Kilpatrick said job growth in the region has outpaced housing production — “a 5 to 1 growth in jobs compared to housing units over the last decade” — and that household formation can increase housing demand even where population totals remain flat.

Why it matters: The study identifies gaps across several income bands and argues that merely funding a handful of subsidized projects will not close the divide without broader changes. Kilpatrick urged the planning commission to consider zoning and permitting changes that allow smaller and attached housing types in amenity‑rich, walkable neighborhoods.

Most important findings

- Rental demand: Kilpatrick said the city needs roughly 21% more units in low‑ and moderate‑income rental bands compared with current stock and that the lowest income tier needs “about 10 times as much housing as we have produced over the last 5 years.”

- For sale market: The report estimates the city needs 16 times more construction to serve homeowners overall and 21 times more units priced roughly between $171,000 and $275,000 to meet moderate‑income demand. Kilpatrick noted the current average sale price in Grand Rapids is about $300,000 and much of the for‑sale housing is older stock that likely needs $50,000–$60,000 in reinvestment.

- Root causes: Kilpatrick cited supply scarcity and the limited land zoned for walkable, amenity‑rich neighborhoods — “less than 3% of the land area in West Michigan has created those kinds of walkable amenity rich place based neighborhoods,” he said — as drivers of price escalation. He said regulatory requirements (minimum lot sizes, setbacks, parking, and other standards) increase costs, as do permitting delays and financing timelines.

Policy and planning implications

Kilpatrick presented three broad approaches: change the regulatory environment to allow smaller, attached and higher‑density housing in more places; align development incentives with market and master‑plan goals; and target subsidies and philanthropy to the households that cannot be served by market or regulatory reform alone. He emphasized local zoning and permitting can reduce the five main development cost components — land, construction, design/permitting, professional fees and financing — and urged the Planning Commission to factor that in as it embarks on a zoning rewrite.

Public and commission reaction

Commissioners asked Kilpatrick about racial disparities in homeownership in Kent County and Grand Rapids. Kilpatrick said he believed the white homeownership rate is about 72% and the African American homeownership rate about 39% in the area, and that the city “has 1 of the largest disparities in The United States.” He and commissioners discussed how increasing homeownership opportunities through smaller‑lot or attached housing could help, but Kilpatrick noted targeted programs (down‑payment assistance, outreach, nonprofit partners) would still be needed to address long‑term wealth gaps.

What happens next

Kilpatrick offered to continue working with city staff on the zoning rewrite and to provide data and drafting assistance. The presentation concluded without any formal planning commission action; commissioners and the consultant discussed questions and next steps during the meeting.