District reviews October 1 enrollment data; board discusses homeschool trend and grade-level bubbles

Box Elder School District staff presented preliminary October 1 K–12 enrollment data and discussed trends the board said could affect facilities and staffing planning.

The district’s October 1 report included K–12 counts only (preschool and adult-education numbers are excluded from the state October 1 count). Staff noted the district’s enrollment peaked in 2021–22 and has declined modestly since; staff highlighted a persistent larger cohort (a “bubble”) moving through the elementary and secondary grades that will increase some grade levels as it advances. The board discussed how that cohort will affect intermediate and middle schools and eventually high school enrollment.

District staff also flagged a longer-term increase in families submitting homeschool affidavits and reminded board members that some students who leave district enrollment for homeschool are not immediately tracked beyond the affidavit. Marcy (district records) maintains the homeschool affidavit list; board members noted the state’s scholarship program requires a homeschool affidavit and that recent scholarship changes may be a factor in parental choices.

Staff showed grade-level counts and geographic splits (north and south ends of the district). For the current year the staff reported a modest secondary increase (+39) and an elementary decline (−81) in the preliminary counts; staff said final, cleaned enrollment numbers may change slightly when the district finalizes records. Board members asked staff to include these enrollment reports in future board and budget discussions and requested historical data be made readily available in the board packet to support capital planning.