Los Alamos County is poised for a significant shift towards electrification, as outlined in the recent Board of Public Utilities meeting held on June 25, 2025. The board discussed three scenarios for the county's energy future, focusing on the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and home electrification technologies over the next 30 years.

The most ambitious plan, Scenario 1, aims for 100% electrification by 2055, which includes a substantial increase in solar energy adoption and the electrification of transportation. Currently, about 5% of homes in Los Alamos County utilize solar energy, and under Scenario 1, this figure is expected to double, with a target of 10% adoption of rooftop solar by 2055. This scenario also anticipates a significant rise in EV ownership, with projections estimating around 18,839 vehicles in the county, predominantly light-duty vehicles.

The board emphasized the importance of understanding charging behaviors and energy demands associated with this transition. For instance, it was noted that approximately 30% of EV drivers are expected to charge their vehicles at home, primarily during evening hours. This peak demand for electricity is projected to coincide with increased heating needs during winter months, raising concerns about grid capacity and the need for infrastructure upgrades.

In contrast, Scenario 3 presents a more conservative approach, projecting only 25% electrification by 2055. This scenario reflects a lower adoption rate of both EVs and solar technologies, highlighting the varying degrees of commitment to electrification within the community.

The discussions also touched on the role of public policy in shaping these scenarios, with federal and state incentives driving the push towards more aggressive electrification goals. The board acknowledged that while the adoption of EVs and solar technologies is crucial, the actual implementation will depend on community engagement and the availability of supportive infrastructure.

As Los Alamos County navigates this transition, the board's findings underscore the need for strategic planning to accommodate the anticipated growth in energy demand and to ensure a sustainable and resilient energy future for its residents. The next steps will involve further analysis and community outreach to refine these scenarios and align them with the county's long-term energy goals.