The Nebraska Economic Forecasting Advisory Board convened on April 25, 2025, to discuss significant adjustments to the state's revenue forecasts for the upcoming fiscal years. The meeting highlighted concerns regarding the accuracy of current estimates, particularly in relation to individual and corporate income tax revenues.

During the session, board members expressed skepticism about the projected $1.1 billion in final and estimated payments, noting that current figures stood at approximately $800 million. This discrepancy raised questions about the reliability of the forecasting model used to generate these estimates. One member emphasized the need for mathematical justification behind the projections, indicating that a $250 million overestimation in final and estimated payments was evident.

The discussion also touched on the timing of the meeting, with some members questioning whether holding it earlier in the month would yield more accurate data. However, it was concluded that the last few days of April typically do not contribute significantly to final payments, suggesting that the timing of the meeting was appropriate.

A key point of contention was the adjustment of revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. The board's forecast was notably lower than that of the Department of Revenue, with a difference of about $170 million for fiscal year 2026 and $200 million for fiscal year 2027. The adjustments were primarily attributed to the distribution of PTEK payments between individual and corporate income taxes, with a proposed shift of $200 million from individual to corporate tax estimates to better reflect actual revenue trends.

The board acknowledged the importance of using professional expertise to interpret data and make necessary adjustments to the forecasting model. Members agreed that while manual adjustments are not ideal, they are sometimes necessary to align forecasts with observed realities.

As the meeting concluded, the board recognized the need for ongoing evaluation of the forecasting process to ensure that future estimates are more accurately aligned with actual revenue collections. The discussions underscored the complexities of economic forecasting and the critical role of timely and accurate data in shaping Nebraska's fiscal policies.