The Nebraska Economic Forecasting Advisory Board convened on April 25, 2025, to discuss significant updates regarding the state's financial outlook. The meeting focused on the latest tax revenue forecasts and adjustments based on recent data trends.

The session began with a report on current tax collections, revealing that sales tax revenue was $8.4 million below forecast for the month. Individual income tax collections were reported to be $187.9 million below expectations, while corporate income tax fell short by $53.3 million. Miscellaneous tax revenues also lagged, coming in $3.1 million below forecast. These figures indicated a concerning trend, as the total shortfall for the month was projected to reach approximately $17 million below the forecast by the end of April.

Further analysis showed that for March, sales and use tax was about $21 million below forecast, individual income tax was $191 million below, corporate income tax was $42 million below, and miscellaneous tax was $10 million below. The board noted that growth rates across various categories had been reduced compared to the baseline forecast established in February.

A significant point of discussion was the forecast for the fiscal year 2024-2025, which indicated a reduction of approximately $160 million from the previous forecast. The board highlighted that while sales and miscellaneous taxes remained close to earlier projections, individual income tax was expected to decrease by $50 million, and corporate income tax was projected to drop by $100 million.

The board also addressed discrepancies in estimated payments for individual income tax, noting that actual collections through March were significantly lower than anticipated. The estimated payments and final payments were projected to be around $1.1 billion, but actual figures were only about $525 million. This discrepancy suggested an overestimation of $250 million in the forecast for individual income tax, prompting a reevaluation of the projections.

To balance these adjustments, the board proposed reallocating some of the estimated shortfall in individual income tax to corporate income tax receipts, reflecting a more accurate financial picture for the fiscal year.

The meeting concluded with an invitation for questions, indicating a collaborative approach to addressing the financial challenges ahead. The discussions underscored the need for ongoing monitoring and adjustment of the state's economic forecasts in light of changing revenue patterns.