[{"_1":2,"_88":-5,"_89":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32,76],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},"mediaId",6639744,"mediaKeyId","3409187-b4a7c7846db17b877acf0bc773e25ae2","parentId",3409187,"title","Reconciliation package could shift Medicaid, SNAP and education costs to Virginia, staff and NCSL adviser say","audioSeconds",3975,"startMs",1733000,"endMs",5708000,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=3409187-b4a7c7846db17b877acf0bc773e25ae2&start=1733&end=5708","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/3409187-b4a7c7846db17b877acf0bc773e25ae2/thumbnail_1733000.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6639744/Virginia/Reconciliation-package-could-shift-Medicaid-SNAP-and-education-costs-to-Virginia-staff-and-NCSL-adviser-say","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6639744-82a403272206a65eee6e4cdb91a09cc8/orig.mp4?Expires=1771159995&Signature=V-pHocNi1qu5Siw1sAqtJwyw10SLQxi-8xCdorMlzBQD2OYtOmqmErdZ4VPUs59Jv3uJ3nWKy4Ysc4RggVF2XIo~4yEDEepqMohYAPcdaUNDXtNbF6x6lv2xNNEbfg9o7ZEVvhVWpbuENEUUobsIQ4Ay8QP5QFJPnDC7Z8cDxvbMMqGaEorvWVaA6dmoXAA6Lmlp0ELeTCLX5pqqXsbuDFfyX6yVtppe5HKQbejubTw0SgXl0jV~kif~GNdSncx1Hlhs~Ac507ATLWgI9uAo3TpDbM7grLUdCN2x6Fg5H6CidbA~IqpQRVFL5-fB1DXN2u8oqz8u7tScUkZdwoxvkg__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","Virginia Legislature","date","2025-05-20T00:00:00Z","article","Austin Reed, federal affairs adviser for the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), told a Virginia Senate subcommittee that Congress's budget reconciliation process is moving rapidly and could carry provisions that shift costs or administrative responsibilities to states.

\"It is a privileged legislative vehicle,\" Reed said, explaining that reconciliation allows the Senate to pass certain budgetary measures with a simple majority but is time‑bound and limited in scope. He summarized key constraints: reconciliation can affect federal revenues, mandatory spending programs and the debt limit, and provisions must pass the so‑called Byrd rule to remain in scope.

Reed outlined major committee actions in the House: the House budget resolution set a roughly $2.8 trillion window for net deficit changes over a 10‑year period, and House committees have proposed savings and offsets for that package. The House education and workforce committee's package — known in drafts as the Student Success and Taxpayer Savings plan — reportedly finds roughly $350 billion in savings over 10 years through changes to Pell eligibility, student‑loan limits, new repayment designs and institutional ‘‘risk‑sharing’’ measures.

The NCSL adviser and state staff warned about provisions with direct state finance implications. Mike (staff), presenting the Commonwealth's fiscal exposure, said \"federal funds are roughly a quarter of the operating budget for the year,\" and noted Medicaid accounts for the largest federal share (roughly $15 billion in federal Medicaid funds and about 69% of total federal funds to the state in the current budget year). He told the panel that a likely House proposal on SNAP would impose a minimum state match (5%–25% depending on error rates) that could expose Virginia to roughly $90 million to $450 million in additional general‑fund costs annually if adopted as drafted.

Staff also flagged the so‑called community‑engagement (work‑requirement) proposals and other Medicaid changes under consideration. Because Virginia's Medicaid expansion population is largely financed with enhanced federal matching and hospital assessments, staff said the state general‑fund impact depends on whether changes affect expansion only or the broader Medicaid base. Mike noted the community‑engagement requirement in the House draft would not take effect until 2029 in that text but warned Congress could move those dates.

Austin Reed and staff described differences between the House and Senate instructions: the Senate's reconciliation instructions allow a larger deficit window (about $5.8 trillion in one draft) and the committees in the two chambers disagree sharply on the scale and targets of cuts — particularly in Medicaid and tax policy. Reed also warned that leadership is seeking to move a package quickly because Republican leaders have tied the reconciliation vehicle to a debt‑limit increase; Treasury statements and staff briefings have suggested extraordinary measures could run out in late summer, creating added urgency.

On education, Reed summarized possible changes to higher education and student aid: proposed loan‑limit caps for graduate and professional borrowers (for example, $100,000 for graduate and $150,000 for professional students in draft text), elimination of certain PLUS loans, new repayment frameworks, and a potential risk‑sharing mechanism that would make institutions partially liable for poor repayment outcomes. Staff further noted administrative reductions at the U.S. Department of Education — including cuts to the Institute of Education Sciences, technical assistance centers and mental‑health grants — that may reduce federal support for state education activities.

Staff closed with an administrative update on COVID relief funds: the U.S. Department of Education canceled previously approved statewide ESSER spending extensions in March and implemented a resubmission process; Virginia had an approved statewide extension of about $49 million that is now subject to reapproval under the department's new process, staff said.

Subcommittee members asked questions about timing, scoring and the debt limit; staff said they will continue monitoring developments and that written public comments were being accepted through a link on the subcommittee agenda.

No formal votes were taken on these briefings.","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","May 20, 2025 - Offsite: SFAC: Special Subcommittee on Federal Impacts to Resources - 9:30 am","oneSentenceSummary","Austin Reed of the National Conference of State Legislatures and Virginia budget staff warned that congressional budget reconciliation could carry Medicaid, SNAP and higher‑education changes that shift costs or administrative burdens to the Commonwealth.","taxTitle","2025 Legislature VA, Virginia","taxId",77687,"location","Virginia","headline","","shortSummary",{"_33":77,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":78,"_41":79,"_43":80,"_45":81,"_47":82,"_49":83,"_51":84,"_53":85,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":86,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":87,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},6639749,"Virginia likely to slow to under 2% growth in 2025, ODU economist warns",1469,219000,1688000,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=3409187-b4a7c7846db17b877acf0bc773e25ae2&start=219&end=1688","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/3409187-b4a7c7846db17b877acf0bc773e25ae2/thumbnail_219000.jpg","/articles/6639749/Virginia/Virginia-likely-to-slow-to-under-2-growth-in-2025-ODU-economist-warns","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6639749-4bb28d16a7ff1e932a423f3d7dcaf428/orig.mp4?Expires=1771159995&Signature=YFYEYG-k0h6bbLy58KSLyaQMHC4TNfqMXCcDZdqwjd1xYCm~f7OzwSl1CeA9-drF8UGZgNCIIETdLk12qPKK3v37IUyyTgfGRVQ6S9wfLCtWNSGJNNIBdarchNE3aUevJFJik0b49L-O6yCjZ8hpD3YoXCeqsKFJz70UjnV~ARIaJ1zXwJ1jre-1q-ei5AOnYprbH0YFlrcAgXZxOWnAl6ViBquwluy32YQZBEAZd5iFkR~PRsbLYVZpaniIdEu36eviRQ0OFODHDQIl7aPsGbEBweti6vi9auDixdRv4v3qMJ9vevAH3Y23d36KrP8NDVq~4Sdm-xa0xmnYt9UDNg__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","Professor Bob McNabb, chair of the Department of Economics at Old Dominion University, told a Virginia Senate subcommittee that state growth is at risk as federal policy shifts, trade disruptions and weakening labor indicators converge.

\"If we think about the data that we have, we have essentially 3 types of data before us, lagging indicators, contemporaneous indicators, and forward looking indicators,\" McNabb said as he summarized national and Virginia data trends. He said national first‑quarter real GDP declined slightly and that a more recent surge in imports — driven in part by attempts to avoid higher tariffs — temporarily raised inventories that are now likely to be run down.

McNabb said forward‑looking container bookings remain down by double digits year‑over‑year, a signal he called an \"upcoming supply chain shock\" that could materialize in late summer and fall if tariff uncertainty continues. That disruption, he said, would raise prices and shortages as inventories deplete.

The economist also flagged labor‑market shifts. He noted that job openings nationally have fallen from a peak of roughly 12.1 million in late 2021 to about 7.2 million in March 2025, and that job quits are lower than before COVID‑19 — a sign workers are less willing to change jobs. For Virginia he said job openings in the latest available state data (February) were about 228,000 and that the state showed signs of weakening in March, including year‑over‑year increases in initial and continued unemployment claims.

Inflation and monetary policy add to the risks, McNabb said. He described a dilemma facing the Federal Reserve as bond yields have risen despite the Fed maintaining higher rates; markets are pricing in greater risk and inflation expectations have climbed amid tariff uncertainty. \"At the end of the day, we will no longer be able to achieve more than 2% growth in 2025,\" McNabb said, adding that he would \"not be surprised if we see a downturn in jobs and individual employment this year with GDP growth less than 1% for Virginia.\"

McNabb emphasized Virginia's exposure to federal workforce and defense spending. He said Virginia ranks third among states in the absolute number of federal civilian employees (excluding D.C.) and that federal and military employment is concentrated in Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads. He calculated that the average federal civilian wage in Virginia is about 1.6 times the private‑sector wage statewide, and higher in some localities, meaning that \"for every federal civilian job lost in the Commonwealth, you need 1.6 private sector jobs to make up the lost wages,\" not counting federal benefits.

McNabb closed by urging caution: economic data are lagged and policy changes are occurring rapidly. He said positive monthly job reports can mask underlying trends and that the full impact of tariffs and federal workforce reductions may appear in the months ahead.

The subcommittee took no formal action during the presentation; members asked a few follow‑up questions before moving to the next agenda item.","Professor Bob McNabb told a Virginia Senate subcommittee that tariffs, falling container bookings and reductions in federal employment make a downturn likely this year and could push Virginia growth below 1% if current federal policies persist.","actionData","errors"]

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Reconciliation package could shift Medicaid, SNAP and education costs to Virginia, staff and NCSL adviser say

Virginia likely to slow to under 2% growth in 2025, ODU economist warns