[{"_1":2,"_100":-5,"_101":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32,76,88],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},"mediaId",6268734,"mediaKeyId","3050508-8e9ad3d46045b0dfa97fc76a13ae2f18","parentId",3050508,"title","Benchmark revisions and 2024 job data pull Arizona employment lower; March 2025 report shows third consecutive year‑over‑year decline","audioSeconds",1077,"startMs",1643000,"endMs",2720000,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=3050508-8e9ad3d46045b0dfa97fc76a13ae2f18&start=1643&end=2720","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/3050508-8e9ad3d46045b0dfa97fc76a13ae2f18/thumbnail_1643000.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6268734/Arizona/Benchmark-revisions-and-2024-job-data-pull-Arizona-employment-lower-March-2025-report-shows-third-consecutive-yearoveryear-decline","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6268734-cc1cc532f8219da1eaff43cac9afee73/orig.mp4?Expires=1770936854&Signature=dKxCVP5Cd6f4lnfhsC3vZcG2D0L0DDtNRZg5-nOaCBcQPTdB0wh09vNGtJgyTZ4gbPk6uO79pCrwA981UHqe49Dzru5GywGzEwRtRMXn6ljqYhxsyq9lSf4dXy2RRpWPSJlLDJHPgjCpqeMEe03sJ3QT1fqr9OonRSpKeDIMfBnP~oITFZ7hUWneuz6JchAt6OYxghw-M4hV8y3Kf4ABmTFlRjYUdhae4OzjpAG-Xim7MsZxgXY6bzX9rOohS4A4aZ-YyiVjNKR~QbvacZgT5IhL5eGVmczU~vZWi~N1GeNYifctiUWVxvaRAIPLuWEaWhV7TrIFcwf8SFQ~zOvKHg__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","Arizona Legislature","date","2025-04-17T00:00:00Z","article","State and independent labor analysts on the FAC panel reported large downward revisions to Arizona employment for 2024 and continued job declines in early 2025, especially in professional and business services, transportation and parts of manufacturing.

University of Arizona economist George (University of Arizona economist) summarized the downward revisions: \"Arizona's job growth decelerated significantly last year. What we thought, 2024 looked like was revised down significantly.\" He said Phoenix’s preliminary strong growth was revised closer to the national rate and Tucson’s slow growth was revised to job losses.

Doug Walls (labor market analyst, state labor office) explained the mechanics and magnitude of the revisions and data limits: \"So annually, 2024 employment was revised down by 23,200 jobs,\" and he described how benchmark revisions rely on employer tax records and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Walls told the panel the monthly household and payroll surveys can miss turning points, are sensitive to survey response rates, and that the March 2025 monthly employment report showed total nonfarm employment down about 0.5% year‑over‑year (roughly 15,400 jobs). He said eight of 12 industry sectors posted losses and the unemployment rate rose to about 4.1 percent.

Panelists linked the sectoral losses to interest‑rate sensitivity and changing demand patterns: employment declines concentrated in professional and business services, retail and wholesale trade, transportation, construction and manufacturing. Panelists also flagged slower residential and commercial construction permit activity, a rising rental vacancy rate, and weaker hiring and quit rates compared with the pandemic period as corroborating indicators.

What was recommended: analysts said the revisions and fresh monthly data justify conservative near‑term revenue assumptions for the state and reinforced the JLBC‑FAC recommendation to consider the two‑sector forecast rather than the January baseline until additional corroborating data arrive.

The panel agreed further revisions are possible as benchmark processes complete and urged caution in treating short‑term data swings as persistent trends.","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","04/17/2025 - Finance Advisory Committee","oneSentenceSummary","State and independent labor analysts on the FAC panel reported large downward revisions to Arizona employment for 2024 and continued job declines in early 2025, especially in professional and business services, transportation and parts of manufacturing.","taxTitle","2025 Legislature Arizona, Arizona","taxId",78572,"location","Arizona","headline","","shortSummary",{"_33":77,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":78,"_41":79,"_43":80,"_45":81,"_47":82,"_49":83,"_51":84,"_53":85,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":86,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":87,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},6268739,"JLBC, FAC present cautious April revenue view; 2-sector forecast and recession stress test lower available resources",567,272000,839000,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=3050508-8e9ad3d46045b0dfa97fc76a13ae2f18&start=272&end=839","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/3050508-8e9ad3d46045b0dfa97fc76a13ae2f18/thumbnail_272000.jpg","/articles/6268739/Arizona/JLBC-FAC-present-cautious-April-revenue-view-2-sector-forecast-and-recession-stress-test-lower-available-resources","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6268739-4ef7bff71c66f903a5f0927e8469c395/orig.mp4?Expires=1770936854&Signature=aD-wIab1FJVVYFqmHo5C~f~5CRXepY8~geEuhsPMeABEfLST~EQxCnk2SuP3IXddJpkyrxJGWk6UDD65j9bwxZZP0YSF4NzeST-6iIjNJt~U9StG-ziQwxe2irJNebU00T-wAFtQKRdke9BzKn9AsvlWd1PTMislJtVZ8VEUuE6-002~gDucm5UFHy2NrDRwd9fdDcAMzyfL2MdeqK~CF2aZhu4Mf~WAfBSjA4uuDiPoUL4Qjr2UGnA8HczXUAh3kH6jBRx7u7Y7gY0jv85nTnbx7hPr2jKOj5q1dF9~x6TvWnApwp2plfnmoTogLdkM0j621UIb6wJY3rCLfJmcuA__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","The Finance Advisory Committee and staff from the Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) on April presented a revised, more cautious view of Arizona’s near‑term revenues and cash balances, saying federal policy uncertainty argues for lowering the January baseline.

Committee presenter Richard (FAC member/presenter) told the panel “this April forecast should be lower, than the January baseline” and outlined three main sources of uncertainty: tariff policy, potential federal budget reductions and large federal tax‑cut proposals. JLBC staff member Jack (JLBC staff) said the office used those risks to prepare a two‑sector forecast and a separate recession stress test and noted, “We’re not predicting a recession under this, budget update.”

Why it matters: the JLBC‑FAC discussion is intended to guide the Legislature’s assumptions for the 2026 budget. The two‑sector forecast (JLBC staff plus FAC panelists) produces materially smaller available resources than the January four‑sector baseline: after removing ongoing one‑time items previously included in the baseline, Richard and JLBC staff reported an apples‑to‑apples January four‑sector remaining balance of roughly $612 million, an April four‑sector remaining balance of about $615 million, but a JLBC/FAC two‑sector available resources estimate of about $277 million. JLBC staff explained the practical effect: while a higher cash balance appears in fiscal 2026 (about $471 million), spending that full amount in a single year would produce negative balances later; the two‑sector low‑point constrains the long‑term spendable amount to roughly $277 million.

JLBC staff also ran a standardized recession “stress test” frequently used across states. Under JLBC’s moderate‑recession assumptions (flat revenues in fiscal 2026 and a modest decline in fiscal 2027 plus sharply higher Medicaid enrollment), the office projects a roughly $37 million shortfall in fiscal 2026 and a roughly $1.8 billion shortfall in fiscal 2027 — a level that slightly exceeds the state’s budget stabilization (rainy day) fund balance of about $1.6 billion, JLBC staff said.

Speakers urged caution. FAC panelists said tariff and trade policy changes are producing rapid shifts in business and consumer expectations; panelist Danny Court (Elliott Pollack & Company) summarized the current communications environment as volatile, saying, “I basically put a 24 hour shelf life on anything that I present right now.” Others emphasized the timing issue: monthly receipts that grow in the next few months are often backward‑looking and are likely to be treated as one‑time gains rather than increases to the ongoing base.

What the panel recommended: JLBC staff and FAC panelists recommended that budget drafters consider the two‑sector forecast as a cautious planning assumption while also reviewing the stress test results as a contingency. The presenters noted the eventual choice of baseline is the Legislature’s to make.

The committee closed with procedural remarks about upcoming monthly fiscal highlights and a reminder that the April update is intended to inform, not bind, the budget process.","The Finance Advisory Committee and staff from the Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) on April presented a revised, more cautious view of Arizona’s near‑term revenues and cash balances, saying federal policy uncertainty argues for lowering the January baseline.",{"_33":89,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":90,"_41":91,"_43":92,"_45":93,"_47":94,"_49":95,"_51":96,"_53":97,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":98,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":99,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},6268729,"Panel warns tariffs and trade uncertainty cloud Arizona outlook; exporters and consumers could be affected",3815,71000,3886000,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=3050508-8e9ad3d46045b0dfa97fc76a13ae2f18&start=71&end=3886","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/3050508-8e9ad3d46045b0dfa97fc76a13ae2f18/thumbnail_71000.jpg","/articles/6268729/Arizona/Panel-warns-tariffs-and-trade-uncertainty-cloud-Arizona-outlook-exporters-and-consumers-could-be-affected","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6268729-b237d03e91294cf7f2ac9c7cb86c380f/orig.mp4?Expires=1770936854&Signature=SIfOXiADwPnwfE~br3iOFh6dGB8XJoKrMv8xM3SrXm0y5Ah2ynawh2YVmcYaS0wkXAaT2mzIyuCp7otcQ6zlRGgGdxXBlCnesiAeZAa2ouw6-5Lb5x2cVNnjpV6eVhuip8cMd4KYmncXURvSpUWCAVXL4pp9P9oALyT7znmrXJhMIjgerSoOqyoGAO3ZYlwHJnJAfsjHrrNPLOrBJqWFpBw9mSGV6OzB5iRfteebLIMjc7BqDAAbkP2JiSlIMJXepUqlSQ-xfGv5zHoun65WnwJd8TGpPoSHaCcHT5b8AwgeEOQo9keGMV-y3YDtOrTJtDq~BqQMEI4kJTlX-BmBlg__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","Panelists at the Finance Advisory Committee meeting flagged tariff policy and trade uncertainty as immediate drivers of economic risk for Arizona businesses and consumers.

Richard (FAC member/presenter) opened the topic by noting that tariff policy is among the primary federal uncertainties affecting the state’s outlook. Danny Court (economist, Elliott Pollack & Company) said the policy environment has shortened the useful life of forecasts: “I basically put a 24 hour shelf life on anything that I present right now.” He and other panelists described how rapid announcements, pauses, exemptions and retaliatory steps make planning and investment decisions difficult for exporters and importers.

Panelists described Arizona’s economic exposure to trade. Danny and others noted large export sectors — semiconductors, aerospace, medical devices, mining and agriculture — that rely on stable trade relationships. Alan Maguire (economist, private sector) said the direct price impact of tariffs is generally smaller than the multi‑year inflation spike experienced in recent years, but cautioned that tariffs raise business costs for intermediate goods and that supply‑chain re‑routing takes time.

Lorenzo Martinez (regional economic policy representative) framed the policy shift as a major trade shock for U.S. partners: “The reaction from the rest of the world, I think, could have long term ramifications. I think it there's a high risk of whether the world views us as, a reliable trading partner. And I anticipate that a lot of the discussions that are happening with world leaders right now are looking to see, how they can develop optional alliances that will rely less on The US.” The panel repeatedly stressed that uncertainty — not just the tariffs’ direct price effects — is curbing investment and may depress consumption.

Panelists urged policymakers and budget planners to treat trade policy as a high‑risk variable in near‑term forecasting and recommended stress‑testing revenue plans against plausible tariff scenarios.

The FAC meeting did not propose or adopt policy changes; it presented possible economic effects to inform budget and contingency planning.","FAC panelists said recent tariff announcements and uncertain federal trade policy are raising business and consumer uncertainty in Arizona. Panelists flagged potential price increases, disrupted supply chains and risks to export‑reliant industries including semiconductors, aerospace and agriculture.","actionData","errors"]

Article not found

Benchmark revisions and 2024 job data pull Arizona employment lower; March 2025 report shows third consecutive year‑over‑year decline

JLBC, FAC present cautious April revenue view; 2-sector forecast and recession stress test lower available resources

Panel warns tariffs and trade uncertainty cloud Arizona outlook; exporters and consumers could be affected