[{"_1":2,"_88":-5,"_89":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32,76],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},"mediaId",6288861,"mediaKeyId","2535039-fddcfaa45c3e35930f73f5139235ce24","parentId",2535039,"title","Votes at a glance: Advisory Board adopts fiscal forecasts for FY2025–FY2027","audioSeconds",430,"startMs",4946000,"endMs",5376000,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=2535039-fddcfaa45c3e35930f73f5139235ce24&start=4946&end=5376","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2535039-fddcfaa45c3e35930f73f5139235ce24/thumbnail_4946000.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6288861/Nebraska/Votes-at-a-glance-Advisory-Board-adopts-fiscal-forecasts-for-FY2025FY2027","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6288861-e6192aa1bb6e26e6eed482c14ba786be/orig.mp4?Expires=1770756050&Signature=lzql4HYjTBOX7KxaTF-1glnTE39yqsMuYYcQ5s9a3P0akZkHT9Cj3IrKt90c-icEBoKDFCdzIkRaOYJC1QzfmG9-wbSt08fZpMPHBWK-pyLkcxin7dxCLm3RgB8doaD5GuAvpioAMQl3n1B9DvYSDgDRjnAiLHnnQgCT~SOqcZikc1P3iPi9t~7R8So-pKMLPDClbWkQqJn01p-yoGdO6B-l1GoS4H-9ZJe1MNf9hq7P2z7nhaWSMK~LPshjLzJq0ySocuPT7ao~K2CnDFkOOHJonL9ip2TJWGr-8vmlq2f4uEMfvHkzG5xqd9aKcO2qhLGALKdgMtIneViYUy-oxA__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","NE Progressive Legislative Study Group","date","2025-02-28T00:00:00Z","article","The Economic Forecasting Advisory Board voted to adopt revised revenue forecast totals and category estimates for three fiscal years during its meeting.

The board approved the following totals by unanimous roll call:

- Fiscal year 2024–25: $6,435,000,000 (total general fund forecast adopted)

- Fiscal year 2025–26: $6,955,000,000 (total general fund forecast adopted)

- Fiscal year 2026–27: $7,025,000,000 (total general fund forecast adopted)

Each adoption was made by motion, second and a recorded roll call. Board members recorded voting \"Yes\" in each roll call; no \"No,\" abstentions or recusals were recorded on these final total votes.

The board also adopted category estimates (sales and use tax, individual income tax, corporate income tax, and miscellaneous receipts) for each fiscal year during the same meeting; those category motions were made and approved before the board adopted the total for the year. Board members asked that staff incorporate April 15 filings and final payments into the April update to confirm whether the individual income tax categories require revision.

Notes on procedure: motions were made from the floor, seconded, and carried by roll call. The meeting transcript records the repeated roll‑call confirmations of \"Yes\" for the members present.

Ending: Staff will present updated figures at the board’s April meeting, where the board expects April filings to clarify the net effect of pass‑through entity credits and elevated refund activity on the adopted estimates.","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","Nebraska Economic Forecasting Advisory Board - 02-28-25","oneSentenceSummary","The Economic Forecasting Advisory Board voted to adopt revenue forecast totals for the next three fiscal years and approved category estimates; votes were recorded by roll call and carried.","taxTitle","Economic Forecasting Advisory Board, Standing, Committees, Legislative, Nebraska","taxId",80249,"location","Nebraska","headline","","shortSummary",{"_33":77,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":78,"_41":79,"_43":80,"_45":81,"_47":82,"_49":83,"_51":84,"_53":85,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":86,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":87,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},6288866,"Advisory board: revised Nebraska forecast shows higher corporate receipts; pass‑through credits make income tax outlook uncertain",616,9920,625930,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=2535039-fddcfaa45c3e35930f73f5139235ce24&start=9&end=625","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2535039-fddcfaa45c3e35930f73f5139235ce24/thumbnail_9920.jpg","/articles/6288866/Nebraska/Advisory-board-revised-Nebraska-forecast-shows-higher-corporate-receipts-passthrough-credits-make-income-tax-outlook-uncertain","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6288866-3737eed3b796ef72905e1ac4aab96a3e/orig.mp4?Expires=1770756050&Signature=iR9ibe1LMM1ysu26nqg~vYHS7xPS0~7sG0UBdkMIkeI6-68VDPxbLJMhVHXC6pG5r5BGXs9JcrVbAcm6Udx0XeiAr2W~Dakd2Gi80OLtr1XcT4Am~astNv5BZQQlPPlkeYrfzjruKcdt-0AmxqwfbVRCfSmbowAXkjiv4x62mf0jyNobdEXARtEDJMTZfQTCvUW~jPrOLHmTnF7Oay58d8Hn6JG~adwGv~ek0yKuK8Vf2YJeXNqTTLmCtto3CsQ9nsDwNlE4iHw6Umttl4EyshdhuzvW~S38rjwkRqVffEcCx8FqBBx~EPCRkaPP9SmXwNltbfU7j1Ey5SAJCq45pg__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","At a meeting of the Economic Forecasting Advisory Board, staff presented revised revenue and macroeconomic forecasts for Nebraska and the U.S., saying national forecasters differ modestly on growth and inflation and that state revenues are being affected by pass‑through entity credits and higher refunds.

The staff presenter told the board that the Nebraska unemployment rate was about 2.8% in December and that payroll employment had added jobs on average through 2024, while national models from S&P and Moody’s project different out‑year paths for GDP, unemployment and the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts. \"S and P tends to have higher unemployment rate ... Moody on the other hand, keep their unemployment rate roughly 4.2% max out between 2027,\" the presenter said.

Why it matters: the board’s revenue forecast underpins the governor’s and Legislature’s budget planning. Small shifts in refunds, final payments or corporate receipts can change year‑end balances and near‑term reserves.

Staff summarized the fiscal picture: sales and use tax collections have recently trended roughly in line with the October forecast; individual income tax receipts showed a year‑to‑date increase compared with the earlier forecast but staff flagged higher refund activity; and corporate income tax receipts rose materially after a December payment related to pass‑through entity filings.

Staff highlighted a technical driver: pass‑through entity credits and related payments (referred to in the presentation as PTET / PTEC / PTECH in different slides) have materially shifted cash flows. Staff said roughly $1.37 billion of pass‑through entity credits appeared in the current filings database, though not all of that will be claimed or will remain in state filings. Staff estimated that 5–10% of that $1.37 billion may never be claimed, and used a working range implying between about $60 million and $130 million of that amount could ultimately not be claimed and therefore would not be refunded. Based on recent processing and receipts, staff said the model now assumes roughly $350 million annually attributable to the pass‑through entity flows — a sizable cash‑flow item compared with prior expectations.

That shift mostly shows up as higher corporate income tax receipts in the near term (a December payment produced a jump in corporate receipts), while the individual income tax outlook is more uncertain because taxpayers may claim credits either by refund or by reducing estimated or final payments. \"I am not 100% confident that we have built in sufficient changes relative to either individual income tax refunds or lower payments,\" the staff presenter said, urging caution about the current individual income tax projection.

Staff also briefed the board on other forecast drivers: consumer price inflation is expected to remain elevated for a while in both S&P and Moody’s baselines (moderating toward 2–3% over several years), and national assumptions about the timing and size of Fed rate cuts differ (affecting interest on investments and general‑fund income). The presentation noted a recent decline in farm income and some softness in personal outlays when measured month‑to‑month — dynamics that affect Nebraska’s taxable base.

Board members from urban and rural areas stressed different local conditions: some members reported continued commercial and multifamily construction in Omaha and other metro areas, while others warned that rural communities remain vulnerable to a concentrated reliance on higher‑income households for discretionary spending. Several members urged staff to produce an analysis of the distribution of taxable income (share of revenue attributable to the top 10%) ahead of the April review.

Next steps: staff said the April meeting (scheduled by the board for April 25 at 2:00 p.m.) will incorporate final payments and April filings and is expected to resolve whether current individual income tax estimates require downward revision. Staff told the board the April data should show how much credit claims were processed as refunds versus reductions to estimated and final payments, and that the April update will be the next substantive checkpoint for the forecast.

Ending: The board approved a set of fiscal forecasts (see the separate \"Votes at a glance\" article for the adopted totals). Staff will return in April with updated receipts and with additional sensitivity analysis on pass‑through credits and refund activity.","At its meeting, the Economic Forecasting Advisory Board reviewed updated national and Nebraska projections and staff warned that pass‑through entity credits and elevated refunds cloud individual income tax estimates even as corporate receipts rose after a December payment.","actionData","errors"]

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Votes at a glance: Advisory Board adopts fiscal forecasts for FY2025–FY2027

Advisory board: revised Nebraska forecast shows higher corporate receipts; pass‑through credits make income tax outlook uncertain