The Senate Committee on Finance and Revenue convened on February 26, 2025, to discuss the current economic landscape in Oregon, focusing on job creation, manufacturing trends, and the impact of tariffs. The meeting featured a presentation by an economist who highlighted the uneven job growth in the state, noting that while sectors such as private education, healthcare, and government have seen job creation, significant losses have occurred in construction, manufacturing, and retail.

The economist emphasized that Oregon's job creation has not been broad-based, which raises concerns about the state's economic outlook. He pointed out that Oregon's GDP growth has slowed compared to national trends, with potential growth rates dropping to as low as 0.5% if current conditions persist. This slowdown is attributed to ongoing tariff tensions, which have historically impacted Oregon more severely than other states due to its sensitivity to trade.

During the discussion, Representative Reschke questioned the reasons behind the manufacturing recession in Oregon, referencing previous forecasts that indicated a decline in manufacturing jobs. The economist reaffirmed that the state was indeed experiencing a manufacturing recession, although he noted some recent positive indicators suggesting a potential turnaround.

The conversation shifted to the role of tariffs, with Representative Reschke arguing that properly implemented tariffs could encourage domestic manufacturing, citing Apple's recent investment in the U.S. as an example. The economist acknowledged that while tariffs can have protective effects for certain industries, they also pose risks, particularly for Oregon, which relies heavily on trade.

The committee members discussed the complexities of tariffs, recognizing that while they can stimulate domestic production, they may also lead to inflationary pressures and economic slowdowns. The economist concluded by stating that his office would maintain an open-minded approach to the evolving trade situation, carefully monitoring both the risks and potential benefits for Oregon's economy.

Overall, the meeting underscored the challenges facing Oregon's labor market and the critical role of trade policies in shaping the state's economic future. The committee plans to continue monitoring these developments as they prepare for future forecasts and policy recommendations.