[{"_1":2,"_112":-5,"_113":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32,76,88,100],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},"mediaId",6394702,"mediaKeyId","2102637-a4d4cdaa05bc5195bc78f3995257ee8d","parentId",2102637,"title","RSQE projects modest U.S. growth and gradual Michigan recovery; warns tariffs, policy uncertainty could alter path","audioSeconds",1901,"startMs",33000,"endMs",1934000,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=2102637-a4d4cdaa05bc5195bc78f3995257ee8d&start=33&end=1934","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2102637-a4d4cdaa05bc5195bc78f3995257ee8d/thumbnail_33000.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6394702/Michigan/RSQE-projects-modest-US-growth-and-gradual-Michigan-recovery-warns-tariffs-policy-uncertainty-could-alter-path","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6394702-ab40953b5fdb96f8bd25d3be4431bd6e/orig.mp4?Expires=1771183303&Signature=m4p52I6no3iLlKvGqiksEUBgkvG9211UqOUo2yh4twh-U8BTli-wNJGe9waPz7-PFAIefCLmzxE5ps9EZob0IteOmuNCfKSINg8DfT7yDSjq04gUewHKn-WXW9k5om-VCmccD-Yz-D-uXWXtOmDl4cLEZdOOTLmmXv4R6QV149OKIFynsrBKKofzfRLvp-7w3yS~XBETjUqF6TkXNUQ0U0I9YeSk562UNr92b1YlLeo5rRwwSBp5TTi9lZbnowjegvYxYiyIQlKYxw-zeLdguGjdCtDQIV3yJm-sc-ZXDNxYg6GQpbTGoZ4xu0X~r5boMUNZA2-NAGI9xciRQ~cWeQ__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","Michigan House of Representatives","date","2025-01-10T00:00:00Z","article","University of Michigan economists updated the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on the U.S. and Michigan outlook, saying the national economy is likely to keep growing at a modest pace while inflation and labor‑market changes will shape monetary policy and state outcomes.

Danielle Maniankoff, an RSQE U.S. forecasting specialist, told the panel that private consumption and business investment have been the main engines of growth and that the pace of U.S. GDP growth remained solid into the fourth quarter of 2024. She said core inflation has stopped falling recently but that “we still expect these metrics to keep trending down,” a dynamic RSQE expects will influence Federal Reserve decisions on the timing and pace of rate cuts.

RSQE Director Gabe Ehrlich presented the Michigan outlook and emphasized differences in prosperity across the state. Ehrlich said the University’s regional income analysis shows “Residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher formal education are almost 5 times more likely to reside in a higher income household as those with a high school degree or less,” and cautioned that geographic and educational gaps mean gains in statewide averages do not reach all households.

Both presenters said their baseline assumes some tax‑cut provisions will be implemented and that tariffs, if enacted, are likely to begin in 2026 in RSQE’s scenario. That combination, RSQE said, would have roughly offsetting short‑run effects on growth in early 2026 but could push inflation modestly higher later in the year. RSQE also flagged several upside and downside risks: revisions to recent data, the uncertain scope and timing of trade policy, the pace of population growth and possible productivity changes driven in part by technological adoption.

On labor markets, RSQE noted hiring has slowed from 2023’s very strong pace; the presenters expect payroll gains to moderate and the unemployment rate to drift slightly higher in 2025 before resuming a gradual decline as monetary policy eases and growth steadies. For housing, RSQE said high mortgage rates and affordability constraints will keep existing‑home sales subdued while creating an opening for new construction in specific price niches.

The economists said their forecast is intentionally cautious about policy promises and that their baseline does not assume immediate, economy‑wide tariff shocks or wholesale repeal of major tax provisions. Instead, RSQE built scenarios that assumed a mix of targeted corporate tax cuts and later tariff implementation, producing a modest rise in deficits and interest costs at the national level.

The RSQE presentation and question period provided technical detail on the drivers of inflation, the outlook for interest rates and the sensitivity of Michigan’s manufacturing‑heavy economy to rate and trade shocks. The presentation informed the conference’s economic assumptions used by state revenue forecasters later in the session.

Ending: RSQE’s outlook underpinned the conference discussion of risks to the revenue forecast: trade policy, the timing and scope of federal tax changes, and the pace of labor‑market softening were cited repeatedly as the most consequential uncertainties for the next two years.","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference - 1/10/2025","oneSentenceSummary","University of Michigan economists updated the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on the U.S. and Michigan outlook, citing modest national growth, cooling inflation and risks from possible tariffs and tax changes.","taxTitle","2025 House Legislature MI, Michigan","taxId",77683,"location","Michigan","headline","","shortSummary",{"_33":77,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":78,"_41":79,"_43":80,"_45":81,"_47":82,"_49":83,"_51":84,"_53":85,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":86,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":87,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},6394689,"CREC adopts revised revenue estimates; forecasters project modest growth, cite volatility in a few tax streams",188,9072000,9260000,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=2102637-a4d4cdaa05bc5195bc78f3995257ee8d&start=9072&end=9260","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2102637-a4d4cdaa05bc5195bc78f3995257ee8d/thumbnail_9072000.jpg","/articles/6394689/Michigan/CREC-adopts-revised-revenue-estimates-forecasters-project-modest-growth-cite-volatility-in-a-few-tax-streams","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6394689-e3af192a4bb5e1d1bda1563a8578033f/orig.mp4?Expires=1771183303&Signature=MUQlaHQgTOr~ePLanQ1cBwDXwmegQU34zuhdp~~PETAPFQnu67tsRqdIgl49zERUJwxAYidoHaFWryjG0U93ztjWjG5EPM~xvXdi3EdZ0wHM6VH0wNcxUohVaV8C3l9F6YAFPl6kmXfVHmfknnI5QOormAtYh2ru6-mHRcOM90KFtwj7lm1HBI0~YVpdpnYxWTuhu3tYm4r4tm3XFQP3lj7AGrB8LFztLCqyB39KoZPFPjSxbZE97hFzO9Xee4MFgNynLF7Z4FZzWEt7eq0hCrRJCLawnzcFx6j7hcFnoNyaFzHH0pYvloPcfmkJjDO~E-xptHkFWQxf6pSGCstBWQ__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","Treasury and the legislative fiscal agencies presented updated revenue forecasts and the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference adopted consensus estimates used for the February budget cycle.

Eric Buses of the Department of Treasury summarized agency views: forecasters expect modest U.S. and Michigan growth and a moderation in inflation. He said the agencies’ forecasts are broadly consistent with the RSQE outlook presented earlier. Buses noted that preliminary fiscal 2024 results showed some upside—Treasury estimated the state finished the year about $276 million above the May target, driven largely by stronger withholding—and that common cash interest earnings have been elevated because of temporarily high short‑term rates and delayed spending of federal ARPA funds.

Fiscal agency staff highlighted where their forecasts diverged. Ben Gichak (House Fiscal Agency) and David Zinn (Senate Fiscal Agency) said most large tax bases—income tax withholding and sales/use tax—showed limited disagreement among agencies, but smaller or more variable streams (corporate income tax, quarterly payments, common cash interest) explained much of the dollar‑value differences among the agencies’ net revenue forecasts. The Senate forecast assumed slightly higher inflation and correspondingly higher sales/use growth in later years, while the administration’s outlook was more conservative in certain years.

At the conference, principals agreed to a consensus path: combined general fund and school aid fund revenues were projected to grow modestly across the forecast horizon. The conference record shows the consensus estimates were adopted by voice vote; the floor record reports no recorded opposition.

Two formal actions were recorded: (1) adoption of K‑12 pupil membership counts (separately documented) and (2) adoption of the revenue estimates. The revenue adoption was approved by voice vote with no recorded opposition. Treasury staff said the budget stabilization fund formula, as applied to the consensus numbers, calls for no automatic pay‑ins or pay‑outs under the statutory test for the forecast horizon.

Ending: Presenters told the panel they would publish the consensus tables and noted the principal risks to the revenue outlook—trade policy, the scope and timing of tax changes, interest‑earnings volatility and corporate income tax variability—remain active topics for monitoring as the executive budget is finalized.","State revenue principals adopted updated general fund and School Aid Fund estimates after presentations by Treasury and the fiscal agencies. The consensus projects modest growth across the forecast window but highlighted volatility in several smaller revenue streams and risks from tariffs, tax policy and interest income.",{"_33":89,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":90,"_41":91,"_43":92,"_45":93,"_47":94,"_49":95,"_51":96,"_53":97,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":98,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":99,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},6394693,"CREC adopts K‑12 pupil membership counts with minimal revisions; state projects continued gradual enrollment decline",229,6569000,6798000,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=2102637-a4d4cdaa05bc5195bc78f3995257ee8d&start=6569&end=6798","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2102637-a4d4cdaa05bc5195bc78f3995257ee8d/thumbnail_6569000.jpg","/articles/6394693/Michigan/CREC-adopts-K12-pupil-membership-counts-with-minimal-revisions-state-projects-continued-gradual-enrollment-decline","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6394693-fe8ed8d794ef8093f556804b932c0d3c/orig.mp4?Expires=1771183303&Signature=h6IYvJQpA4hlP3AOJs7hPFVBXfXHYUfL49BUruq5c1HXfLtGZ85OSk5Th4qGvOrq2nsJvbDC3OFKYX79w91jfXioNKI9XmoCR0-cQ~lpPmNeVbSxWf0gYnc45Kfcov5q0ltOGmtCPYGvY~Am8fcrmUfF3fI0Xrn43jd~RNcBzHY5sXjdv~V~bImyTLz5sT5Zj4kH6uBkO47s~vMD3ilJkqevUBnI9J3s7MWy4KeozEcBVNnAWbFSWS9kMKvaTC798m94RvKdaK3QtXK8bUsR41997RhIcLJliYL~Z-gbcknJIRhYgqa3~9Ch~gRh5BxHmEQpURGBiG5aSNWLqmfUhQ__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","The Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference voted to adopt updated K‑12 pupil membership estimates that will form the pupil count basis for the governor’s February school aid budget recommendation.

Beth Bullion of the State Budget Office presented revised counts and said the current‑year membership blend was nearly unchanged from the May estimate. Bullion told the panel the updated 2024–25 membership blend is approximately 1,384,300 pupils and that the adjustment from the May forecast was small (a net downward correction of roughly 700 pupils across local districts offset by increases in public school academies). She said the draft 2025–26 estimate reflects a projected decline of about 7,200 pupils from the 2024–25 level and that the 2026–27 planning year shows a further decline of about 8,000 pupils—trends the presenters attributed primarily to continued lower birth cohorts replacing larger graduating classes.

Bullion and fiscal‑agency colleagues explained the membership blend methodology used in state funding: the current school year count is weighted 90% to the most recent fall enrollment and 10% to the prior February count. The presenters also recommended continuing a $3.5 million line for nonpublic dual‑enrollment in the MiLEAP program, which remains a separate appropriation.

Conference principals moved to adopt the pupil counts. The adoption was approved by voice vote with no recorded opposition.

Ending: The adopted counts and published adjustment factors will be used in the February executive school aid budget; state staff said they will monitor enrollment and birth‑cohort trends as the primary driver of future membership changes.","Conference accepted revised pupil membership estimates used to set school aid funding; presenters reported only small adjustments to current‑year counts and projected modest declines over the next two school years, driven mainly by lower birth cohorts.",{"_33":101,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":102,"_41":103,"_43":104,"_45":105,"_47":106,"_49":107,"_51":108,"_53":109,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":110,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":111,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},6394698,"University of Michigan survey: consumers’ expectations improve unevenly; lower‑income households remain vulnerable",886,3748000,4634000,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=2102637-a4d4cdaa05bc5195bc78f3995257ee8d&start=3748&end=4634","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2102637-a4d4cdaa05bc5195bc78f3995257ee8d/thumbnail_3748000.jpg","/articles/6394698/Michigan/University-of-Michigan-survey-consumers-expectations-improve-unevenly-lowerincome-households-remain-vulnerable","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6394698-8f8353c0184639a41a7bf0328fdfbc3a/orig.mp4?Expires=1771183303&Signature=KKolwdWyg~R3Rmm0NipePL7HbJY5GC7oLAxAHIZy1k57JXJLL7GnkrQK76BtVe2Bble-COek0FdUo5wr-q0QZMWF5~znAb2QYsDA-gldxe3e5nDQ3FlEMDhJvQviT-RCHkc9LHPfKlknZkQtCNJFEDmBhN8hXRkAliopGXuZUFdwwT4tVQ-JkOCqiANqQZ7pFHhksrO~~KJkj1USfRZobcEtbYhpp-DM2AEsZvL2kJk0z~dzHnzAvBOx7BKFv7gRW2XkH8WCz8BlVonAO8USsAV-0EAAKhmIgJJPlkKLZ8hyQxiB6qOE360u5iIxvfF3PqCAOGzkzcbn00-t3wWnhQ__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","Dr. Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, told the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference that overall consumer expectations have improved substantially since the mid‑2022 trough but that the recovery in sentiment has been uneven across income groups.

Hsu said higher‑income households have experienced the largest improvement in sentiment—driven in part by gains in asset values—while lower‑income households have seen only modest gains. “A lot of consumers are very, very concerned about a resurgence of inflation,” Hsu said, noting that concern about future price increases has been rising since the November election and that those expectations are shaping some current purchasing decisions.

Hsu reported that the survey’s year‑ahead inflation expectation series rose in the most recent release and that the share of respondents spontaneously mentioning tariffs as a concern jumped after the election. She warned that if households expect future price increases and accelerate purchases, short‑run demand could push prices higher even before any tariff policy takes effect.

The survey also finds that while aggregate consumer spending has been robust, much of that demand has been driven by higher‑income households whose wealth gains (stocks and housing) allow larger discretionary spending. Hsu said delinquencies and pandemic‑era savings depletion are showing up for lower‑income households, producing localized vulnerabilities even as aggregate numbers remain resilient.

Hsu recommended that forecasters monitor (1) wage and labor‑market trends that underpin consumers’ ability to spend; (2) evolving inflation expectations tied to policy signals; and (3) whether recent vehicle sales increases reflect genuine demand or advance buying ahead of anticipated price increases.

Ending: Hsu said the trajectory of labor markets and clarity on trade and tax policy will be the primary determinants of how spending and expectations evolve in 2025, and that survey signals should be watched for signs that expectations themselves could become inflationary.","The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers reported improved aggregate sentiment since 2022 but said gains are concentrated among higher‑income households; the survey flagged renewed concern that proposed tariffs could push up future prices and spur pre‑emptive buying.","actionData","errors"]

Article not found

RSQE projects modest U.S. growth and gradual Michigan recovery; warns tariffs, policy uncertainty could alter path

CREC adopts revised revenue estimates; forecasters project modest growth, cite volatility in a few tax streams

CREC adopts K‑12 pupil membership counts with minimal revisions; state projects continued gradual enrollment decline

University of Michigan survey: consumers’ expectations improve unevenly; lower‑income households remain vulnerable