In a recent government meeting, officials discussed the significant decline in average daily membership (ADM) in the Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools, attributing the trend largely to demographic shifts and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the 2019-2020 school year, the district has lost a total of 1,068 students, representing an 8.7% decrease in its K-12 population.

The most pronounced losses were observed in the lower grades, particularly kindergarten, which saw a staggering 28% decline. First through fourth grades also experienced declines ranging from 11% to 16%. While there were modest gains in high school enrollment, the overall trend indicates a troubling pattern for the district.

Officials highlighted two primary factors contributing to the decline: decreasing birth rates and a shift in educational market share. Birth rates in Chapel Hill have been on a steady decline, with the number of births dropping from 697 in 2015 to just 572 in 2021. This trend is consistent with national patterns, particularly in highly educated communities where families tend to delay childbirth and have fewer children.

Additionally, the meeting revealed a concerning trend in market share. In 2019, the district held a 94% market share of school-age children, but this figure has since dropped to 91.7% in 2022. The increase in enrollment at charter and private schools, as well as a rise in homeschooling, has contributed to this decline. Charter school enrollment in the area has surged by 27% from fiscal year 2021 to 2024, while private school enrollment has also seen a notable increase.

The discussion also touched on the impact of housing affordability in the region. Officials noted that rising housing costs may deter young families from moving into the area, further exacerbating the decline in lower grade enrollments. The meeting concluded with a call for further analysis of student exits to better understand the dynamics at play and to inform future policy decisions.